Red Sox Reality Check

Sox On Their Game?

2012-01-16T19:59:00.001-05:00

It's never just about the Red Sox, because there's an equal concern about perception. This weekend, the New York Yankees went nuclear, acquiring Pineda and Kuroda to solidify their rotation.

The Red Sox have responded recently with the "ten dimes equals a dollar" approach, going to the dime store for the Cook, Germano, Silva, and Padilla bargain basement rotation builder plan. The AL East must be selling tickets to the bat rack.

To be fair, the Sox had ~~squandered~~ spent a fortune on pitching including the Matsuzaka and Lackey deals, and are suffering the "once burned, twice shy" reaction, coupled with 'diversification'. You can't be spending all your dough on Ye Olde Towne Team when you've gotta support Liverpool, NASCAR, and whatever the next M&A play is.

It's not as though the fans are screaming for a new right fielder or shortstop. A lineup of Ellsbury, Crawford, Pedroia, Gonzalez, Youkilis, Ortiz, Salty, Scutaro, and RF TBA will put up some numbers. But relying on bottom of the rotation mediocrity and reliever converts recalls the phrase from the "Lords of Finance", PRIVATE INTERESTS VERSUS PUBLIC RESPONSIBILITIES. Local fans view the franchise like a public utility. And the utility's high bills (ticket prices) and perceived CAPEX parsimony isn't sitting well with the Hot Stove gone cold.

Chain of Command

2011-11-30T22:35:00.001-05:00

Most people answer to somebody. Evidently, if rumors are to be believed, that doesn't apply to certain professional baseball players.

The Red Sox will announce hiring Bobby Valentine tomorrow, and the ink isn't even dry on his contract, and ostensibly some 'stars' already have their nose out of joint. Did Bobby Valentine say that Joe Blosox wasn't the greatest hitter/pitcher/baserunner?

Even the best ballplayer (or any other profession) makes mistakes. Hitting .300 (failing seven times out of ten) can still make you an elite ballplayer. Perhaps the question is what standard a professional ballplayer should be held to.

Play hard
Play smart (situational baseball)
Show up on time
Prepare yourself to be successful (rest, conditioning, etc.)
Respect the game
Respect the organization
Respect the manager
Be a good teammate

If you can't adhere to these basic requirements, then let the front office know, so they can try to move you to an organization where neither winning, effort, or professionalism matter. Good luck with that.

We get it. Guys strike out, make errors, get injured, have slumps. But the 2011 version of the Sox wasn't ready to play all too often, specifically coming into the season and in crunch time. That doesn't include everyone, but the task-oriented era is coming to town. You brought it on yourselves.

If you can't give respect, then you can't expect it.

Called Out

2011-11-29T12:11:00.000-05:00

The Red Sox haven't called (formally) to eliminate me from their managerial search. Okay, so I have no experience playing Major League Baseball. From a medical standpoint, I might be considered underqualified, too, because I am not a Pediatrician, and the childish narcissism in the clubhouse needs constant attention.

Alright, then, my continued monitoring of copper probably hasn't really gone over well with John Henry. The commodities magnate undoubtedly has his own take on copper (which hasn't performed all that well lately), although coffee could be at an inflection point. And no matter what your individual taste says, "America Runs on Dunkin'". See how I fit that plug in perfectly.

Conversely, the most disaffected man in the clubhouse, needs a cribbage partner. I guarantee that I can bring on the challenge to Dustin Pedroia at least at the level of Terry Francona. There's no way I'll be getting any "19" hands against the Sox' spiritual leader and second baseman. I'll work at reasonable rates, and I absolutely promise not to call out any of the players in the media, no matter how much the whiny, overpaid, and sometimes underachievers screw up. Try to go steal third or go from first to third on a single with two outs and get thrown out by ten feet? Good hustle, 'atta boy', tough luck, son. Throw an 0-2 fastball down the middle that gets taken yard? My bad. Should've called for a breaking pitch. Caught out late with the new sideline reporter? See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil.

Whaddya mean, disloyal? I've been watching since Eddie Bressoud, Felix Mantilla, and Darrell Brandon. Jim Willoughby is a household name. Okay, so I don't remember Pumpsie Green, but I was only six during the "prime" of his Bosox career. Can't get along with Larry Lucchino? That might be a legit grievance, but how's that make me different from anyone in the 99 percent?

Maybe the problem is simply that the Red Sox have set the bar too high in the managing expectations category. The fans simply came to believe that they'd get maximum effort from the entire organization, for the premium price, overhyped free agents, in the 25 player, 25 limousine era. I'll go with the Ben Stiller approach.

How's that working for you, Mr. Cherington?

Hearts on Fire

2011-11-28T22:20:00.001-05:00

The Red Sox hire a new manager, but behind the scenes, the battle rages. We have Rocky Lucchino training hard with Scrabble, Brain Trainer, and free weights. In the other corner, Ivan (Ben) Cherington trains with caffeine, an iPad, and Carmine in his corner. Rocky knows that he has the upper hand, while the "GM in Name Only" Cherington, sharpens his ~~knives~~ pencils to do battle for his candidate.

The Sox are defining themselves by this GM search, as a methodical but indecisive, assiduous but plodding cabal of dissidents in the affront office. The glitzy candidate, Bobby Valentine, gets dissed because he MIGHT actually criticize the players. God forbid that guys who miss cutoffs, run the bases at times like the Bad News Bears, and sometimes showed all the professionalism of a chimpanzee dance troupe take heat from...anyone.

Do you think Patriot players try to undermine Bill Belichick if they don't like the play calling or defensive strategies? Do you think Ross Ventrone wants to curse the coach or pick his brain on how to keep his career alive?

I'm not anti-Gene Lamont. It's not as though Bobby Valentine is a Corvette and Lamont is a Yugo. We're all going to be watching the Sox next season whether Bobby Valentine or Bobby Vinton is in the dugout.

But let's not get carried away. It's not rocket science; it's not Rocky IV. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

Free Falling

2011-11-26T11:32:00.000-05:00

If there's anything worse than bad publicity in professional sports, it's no publicity. The NBA will be coming online, the Patriots challenge for the top spot in local hearts and minds, and the Bruins have won 10 of 11. Meanwhile the Red Sox continue to baste in the hangover of "the Collapse".

But the Sox have a chance to turn it around next week, with a triple play of news, naming Bobby Valentine the next manager, signing David Ortiz (also relieving the right field offensive problem to a degree), and finding a new queen of what is known as "honey shots".

First, I digress. How are the 1 percent doing lately? 1356 to 1158 in about four months. Put that Dom Perignon back on the shelf, Honey.
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As for Valentine's Day coming in November, consider it done. What's the Buzz Meter do with a Gene Lamont signing? The best seismograph at MIT won't even twitch. A Bobby V signing at least wakes the dead, which represents the majority of the Nation. The Red Sox might have an infatuation with NASCAR and the other Football, but tone deaf to the local indifference?

As for Ortiz, from everything we hear, there's mutual desire for the 36 year-old (is that in US or Dominican years?) DH to return, and he's got the arbitration offer to prove it. According to BaseballReference.com Ortiz has at least an outside chance at Hall of Fame status using their Hall of Fame monitor criteria. And last year, he was the DH Silver Slugger, finished 6th in the AL in batting and 4th in OPS. In other words, his offensive contribution proved sizable.

Finally, who will win the Sideline Reporter sweepstakes, which cannot be called the "Heidi Bowl" as that's been taken? We don't really know what the criteria are. WEEI has offered up their candidates. How about a long shot? Maybe a local politician's daughter who would have access to all sorts of critical financial information and be insulated from prosecution (the Stocks and Jocks guys review this in their first hour with Peter Schweizer of Stanford). You can fill in your own blank for the name.

The Masters of Disguise

2011-11-24T20:21:00.000-05:00

Never confuse misdirection with lack of direction. The Red Sox have a plan, in fact a "master plan" with many key elements. They could tell us what it is, but they'd have to kill us, which won't do, especially with overpriced tickets and concessions.

First, what you see is NOT what really is. Anyone with half a brain (or less if you've been drinking), knows that Ben Cherington is Larry Lucchino's SOCK PUPPET. Cherington speaks the words, but they're coming from Lucky's mouth. Lucchino knew that he couldn't trust that last backstabber, Theo Epstein, so he's moved on. Only Lucchino needs only to get credit as a father of victory, and has no responsibility when the Sox implode. "How did that chicken get in the clubhouse?" That, as we all know, belongs on the shoulders of Epstein and the Departed One.

The Sox are demonstrating the requisite DELIBERATE approach to managerial selection. With all due respect to the remaining candidates, Bobby Valentine, Torey Luvullo, and Gene Lamont, the Sox haven't really considered the really dynamic candidates.

First, here's a vote for Stephen King. Who could strike more fear into both players and opposition than the master of epic horror? King has an in-depth, almost maniacal knowledge of the Red Sox, and he'd probably work cheap as he doesn't need the money. Second, what about considering Jon Corzine, late of MF Global. Corzine's got a lot of political connections, is unemployed, and he hates even the thought of pinstripes. He might be a little busy with Congressional hearings, but that's nothing new for baseball.

Next, the Sox must resolve the thorny compensation issue of Theo Epstein's departure. Theo must be giggling at what he's put over on the Sox thus far. The locals haven't even gotten a deep-dish pizza for losing their GM. You can't call it an Epic Fail, yet, but offering us Kyle Orton on a waiver claim doesn't exactly make it. Hey, we knew that he'd never clear waivers and get to Chicago, right? Ben Cherington may have threatened to hold his breath until we get satisfaction, but probably realized what he was feeling were the cold hands of Larry Lucchino around his neck.

But the key issue, as everyone knows, is free agent loss. We understand that some free agents or others not offered arbitration may have caused testosterone-laden brawls, in the dog-eat-dog world of professional baseball. But sometimes, no matter how hard you try, you can't replace your losses. What is the Nation to do?

On the Apotheosis of Larry Lucchino

2011-10-30T21:25:00.000-04:00

The Red Sox have remade Fenway Park and won a pair of championships in the past eight years. And as they say, "victory has a thousand fathers and defeat is an orphan." Today, Dan Shaughnessy wrote about CEO Larry Lucchino "Controversial, brilliant, combative, and ever-lawyerly, Lucchino represents the past, present, and future of the 21st century Red Sox."

I'd look at it another way, more along the lines of Michael Lewis, "If he's such a good hitter, then why doesn't he hit better." Do Shaughnessy and Lucchino live in a parallel universe where credit is assigned for success and blame referred elsewhere? Everyone associated with the Red Sox got stained by both The Collapse and The Purge that followed.

Somehow, Lucchino stands as the Red Sox blend between The Godfather and the consigliere. He'd probably take that as a compliment; maybe it is. I don't think that anyone would accuse him of being thin-skinned, self-effacing, or overburdened with humility. But I also doubt that a sit-down for lunch with him would be boring either.

Maybe we'd be able to ask him where he stands on the key issues of the day, like who's the closer for next year...or we can add our own 'lawyerly' answers.

Q. Who will be the closer for the Red Sox next year?

A. Jonathan Papelbon has done an excellent job for our team and has earned the right to experience the free agent market. There are numerous high quality closers on the market this season, and we're confident that Red Sox will have solid back-end of the game pitching in 2012, whether it's Jonathan or another closer.

Q. What are your thoughts on Carl Crawford?

A. Carl has performed well in the American League for most of his career. We think that last season was more of an aberration than a fundamental change in the player's ability. We expect that Carl and the team as a whole will perform at a higher level next season.

Q. What will your role be in the selection of the next Red Sox manager?

A. We intend to have a very thorough and thoughtful process, just as we did when Tito was selected. Our new General Manager Ben Cherington will lead the process in consultation with other members of both baseball operations and ownership. We have every confidence that the next manager will be the right man to lead the Red Sox going forward.

In summary, a lawyer's job is to argue effectively for their client. If the Sox didn't feel that he were, they'd have someone else in his job.

Let's Go to Work, The Theme for 2012

2011-10-23T05:37:00.000-04:00

Soon the Red Sox will have a new manager, a new face tasked with infusing leadership and a change of organizational culture. What will he say to the team during the transition? Let's face it, this isn't the Gettysburg Address.

"Welcome to the 2012 Boston Red Sox. Some of you were here last season and others are new faces. Some of you have played on World Series winners and others have never played a game in the majors. Some of you have been all-stars and others are fighting to keep a job.

But all of us must recognize that we are here to win baseball games, a task that requires not only ability, but sustained concentration, dedication, and sacrifice. I'm not going to pretend that last year never happened, but as far as the 2012 standings go, what happened in 2011 is history. We are responsible for what we do here and now, and you all start with a clean slate.

As I look around this room, I see a lot of talented players. But every manager in every clubhouse sees talent. What separates the champions from the others?

Playing good baseball over a long season isn't automatic. You need your head on straight; you know what I'm talking about. You have to be prepared physically and you have to be ready mentally to be on the field 162 games, playing against other guys who want to beat your brains in. We're not asking you to play baseball or think baseball twenty-four hours a day. But I'm telling you, when you come to the park, you're coming to work, to refine your craft and excel at the skills that got you here.

The coaching staff and front office isn't here to be cheerleaders and rah-rah guys. We're here to provide an environment where winning baseball games and caring about winning baseball games matters. We're not going to win 162 games, but we have to play hard every day and support each other with a common goal, to become champions again.

The twenty-five guys in uniform really matter. But if you think the 38,000 people in the stands don't, then you're wrong. You want respect? The best way to earn respect is to show respect, respect for playing the game the right way, the way you learned how to play from the time you picked up a glove, and a ball, and a bat...and haven't forgotten.

We're here to play baseball, not to make excuses for not running out ground balls, for missing signs, running into outs, for overthrowing cutoff men, or throwing to the wrong base. Physical mistakes are part of the game, but we're going to minimize mental mistakes by paying attention to fundamentals and thinking the game. Let's go to work."

After thinking about it, that's the theme for 2012 "LET'S GO TO WORK." It's a no-nonsense statement implying direction and purpose. If the players can embrace that and 'get their heads on straight', the fans can move on.

Public Enemy Number One

2011-10-22T16:59:00.002-04:00

We're making progress, with 'wink-wink' management transition to the Ben Cherington Era (let's hope it's anything approaching the Epstein reign). Sad to say, the Sox scuffle and the official title "The Collapse" have equal play with a highly competitive World Series.

Meanwhile, the Sox have yet to go into PR mode to repair the damages to the Good Ship Fenway. Suffice it to say, Sox loyalists (especially older ones) don't want to hear the words Narragansett or Mabel, Black Label. Damage control thus far gets limited to weak apologies and info that Jason Giambi and Roger Clemens used to share quality time in the Bomber dugout with a brewski.

With many citizens working to find a job, the Red Sox work to get compensation for Chicago's New Man About Town. Pipe dreams like Starlin Castro or the exile of John Lackey to the Windy City have been replaced by the hopes that we'll get a pinch-running prospect from the Cubs. Theo negotiating his own compensation does have a pretty incestuous feel to it.

Give us Barabbas. If we erected a stage on the Common, and asked the fandom which would be more damaging, the return of Whitey Bulger or John Lackey, no doubt the masses would cry, "Give us, Bulger." For a guy allegedly a 'great teammate' Lackey will leave with a reputation perhaps even lower than the Forgiven One, Bill Buckner. Public character assassination leaves a rotten taste in the mouth, but admittedly much of He Who Must No Longer Be Named's wounds were self-inflicted.

Safe bets. Don't expect the Red Sox to raise ticket prices. Even for the Sox that would be the "Audacity of Dope". We know that Curt Young slinking out of town wasn't greeted with any thunderstorm of tears, but we must wonder who is leaking all the goodies to the media.

Who's the boss? After an initial flood of speculation about the new managerial candidates, the wires have gone silent. And how does the first meeting between the manager and the players go? Where's Dick Williams when you need him?

The manager can't go in with all guns blazing and turn off the audience, but he has to develop a new team culture, which is tough when it's changed from 25 players, 25 cabs to 25 limos. You could appeal to their manhood and professionalism, no, that didn't work with the last administration any more. You could go Phil Jackson with a "basketball is sharing" spinoff, but that seems unlikely.

Probably something between the Mutiny on the Bounty flogging scene and James Bond about to be lasered in two in Goldfinger would be about right. Part of the issue is to eliminate the old guard that has too many connections to The Collapse, including Tim Wakefield, Jason Varitek, and maybe even David Ortiz. Can anyone see this happening to the Twins (Tom Kelly anyone?) or even the Orioles with the Showalter Way.

Someone's still got a lot of explaining to do, Lucchino. How do you treat multi-millionaire spoiled brats with kid gloves and get anywhere?

Thank Goodness

2011-10-19T06:46:00.000-04:00

My faith in the Red Sox is restored. All is forgiven. Let bygones be bygones. Bury the hatchet. Kiss and makeup. No harm, no foul. It's all good. Boys will be boys. No problemo.

Why the change of heart? The Red Sox adamantly deny that they were drinking during the game, in the dugout!

Enough said. Mother Teresa would be proud. Pour me a double.

Prodigal Sox

2011-10-15T15:30:00.001-04:00

What do the Red Sox 'owe' the fans...and themselves? There's not a fine line between reasonable and unreasonable. Fans expect maximum effort, physically and mentally, from THEIR team. Every member of the organization has to ask himself or herself, did I give it up or just give up?

I doubt you could find five people (of sound mind) who would question Dustin Pedroia's commitment and effort. David Ortiz said it himself, that he had never seen anyone who cared as much about baseball as the Sox second baseman. Fans will forgive, the moment that the organization and the players acknowledge that the letdown didn't "just happen".

By way of comparison, consider the most dreaded of times, 1986. No rational soul thought Bill Buckner didn't give the effort. People watched him painfully move around the diamond. Fans hated the outcome, and some hated the man, but for the wrong reason. Fast forward, to a team, not twenty-five guys in twenty-five cabs, but twenty-five limos. We perceive that players see fans as inconsequential whiners, shoeshine boys to their magnificant selves. That doesn't make it true, but perception becomes reality.

The Sox have a greater task winning back people's hearts than winning baseball games. Talent, with an appropriate dose of effort, wins a lot of athletic contests. Fans aren't bemoaning a lack of talent, we see something far worse, 'false hustle' and questionable integrity.

Owner John Henry was asked yesterday, "what could you have done differently?" He had a solid answer, "I don't know." In the long pull, perhaps what happened will reap positive rewards as the organizational culture changes into one with hungrier players. The fans come expecting not only winning baseball but PASSIONATE baseball. We feel betrayed and a half-hearted apologia will not soothe the collective animus of the nation.

I'm sure the marketing crew is working overtime to develop a campaign for absolution. What shibboleths get tossed around in times like these:

~~We owe you one~~.
Our fans make a difference.
~~Never again~~.
~~We know we blew it~~.
We will earn your trust.
We understand how you feel.
We'll show that we care as much as you do.
Something to prove.
More than a game...a way of life.
~~Family forgives~~.
We care.

I'm leaning to 'we will earn your trust'. But it's going to take a lot more than a slogan.

Focus on Goodwill: It's a Matter of Trust

2011-10-14T12:23:00.000-04:00

Goodwill is a surplus of value that an organization or company holds above purchased value. Goodwill is "franchise value". We have to remember that as John Wooden said, "character is what you really are and reputation is what people say you are."

The Red Sox, currently of questionable character, despite all the good things that they've done for the community, have to rebuild their goodwill and convince people that the Sox deserve their loyalty AND their money.

Once again, management has taken the brunt of the criticism for behavior that ostensibly rests at the feet of players. Nobody says that players can't eat or drink alcohol. Maybe some players, like Mickey Mantle, functioned at a 'good' level even when intoxicated. But as Billy Joel would say, "it's a matter of trust", and the Sox need to come out and 1) accept responsibility, 2) promise organizational culture change, and 3) follow-through on it.

Nothing But the Truth: Clubhouse Drinking, Back to the Future

2011-10-14T09:14:00.000-04:00

Drinking before or during a game isn't against the law for adults, but is it conducive to optimal performance? We know that alcohol impairs higher order brain function, and one would think that would apply to doing "the hardest thing in sports, hitting a round ball with a round bat."

Years ago, a Red Sox writer (not employed by Red Sox) spotted a Red Sox player drinking hard liquor before a game. The story was never written, never published. The player told the writer, "I am never going to talk with you again." Life went on, and the Red Sox and the player continued to have success.

More than anything else, education is about affecting change in behavior. I don't believe that players succeed or fail because they're not trying hard enough. You can't pitch better by gripping the ball tighter or hit better by holding the bat tighter. To succeed in baseball you need the right combination of God-given talents and inspiration-driven practice...and some luck.

Red Sox fans simply must ask whether management and players have done everything possible to allow the team and players to succeed. Have they looked in the mirror and said my prior is having the best quality process to yield the best outcome. If they haven't, then they must ask themselves, am I prepared to do make that commitment. If not, then those individuals must go, move on.

TPTB

2011-10-13T09:05:00.000-04:00

They've taken your money. They've stolen your soul. They don't care about you. Your interest has gone to almost nothing. They have no principle? No, it's not Wall Street and the American banking community. It's the disorganization of the Boston Red Sox...the collective Sergeant Schultz of MLB.

Occupy Fenway...or maybe it should mean a grand shunning?

Will the Sox top brass (TPTB) look to be the Puppet Masters with their selection of in-house candidate Ben Cherington and GOK for manager? Hey, it's their money.

Can the attitude of the Whiny Little Pitchers be adjusted?

Occupy Fenway

2011-10-09T09:24:00.000-04:00

A movement spreads across the United States, without leadership, without remorse, and without specific demands. Ordinary Americans protest the squandering of our future by "The Powers That Be".

What could be more fitting than the epicenter at Fenway Park? The Henry, Dean Werner, and Lucchino money printers have globalized away Red Sox Nation with NASCAR and the other football, and now promise to get their collective eye back on the ball, importing conditioning to the Red Sox ~~Way~~ Weigh.

From champs twice in four years to epic collapse chumps, with the Red Sox fiscal policy of money for Lugo, Lackey, Crawford, and Drew looking as sound as Greek bailouts. The General Manager dons the gorilla suit for new reasons now, as rumor has it that he'll slink out of the Hub and become a Cub.

You can't really blame the players for drinking before, during, and after games. It really did get that bad. Now we hear that players don't want to take infield practice. That's kid stuff. Why play ball like Japanese professionals, who spend endless hours on fundamentals? What chance would they have in a World Baseball tournament against American professionals?

But enough with the misdirection already. Occupy Fenway. But who would notice, with the yachts, the soccer, auto racing, and of course, the Stanley Cup Champions back at the Garden...and on NESN? Still, it might be worth a try. But trying hasn't been big at Fenway lately.

Cliches, Mean Reversion, and a New Sheriff in Town

2011-10-07T17:52:00.003-04:00

Nobody reading this column is in the Red Sox clubhouse. We don't know what really goes on amid the 'sanctity' of the locker room, where stale beer and frayed nerves are all that remains from the 2011 season.

Every season begets outliers, overachievement and underperformance. For every Jacoby Ellsbury leading the league in total bases, there's a sad story of injury (J.D. Drew) or unrequited glove (Carl Crawford). Mark Belanger hit .287 in 1969 for the Orioles who went to the World Series. His career average was .228. George Scott hit .303 in the Impossible Dream season of 1967 with 19 homers, and .171 with 3 homers the following season. Statistical aberration happens all too often on the diamond.

Ellsbury is more likely to be mortal next season and Crawford probable to revert to All-Star form. What will the triad of Beckett, Buchholz, and Lester do? We can't know, but we should probably worry about starters 4-7 more than one through three.

Ask yourself about your job. Do your supervisors countenance drinking in your workplace? Do the senior workers routinely take advantage of their position whenever possible? I hope that's not a bad example.

We can't know who are the heroes and who are the zeros. Do the greybeards add stability or headaches? Jason Varitek's attention to pregame detail was once legendary. Does that fire still burn and has that work ethic translated to the younger players? David Ortiz is one 'face of the Red Sox'. Is he the gentle giant who keeps things loose or a disgruntled soldier ROAD (retired on active duty)? Tim Wakefield took a long time to win his 200th game this season. Did sending him out there act as a net positive or a net negative in the wins and losses column?

Few baseball players will succeed absent 'good' statistics. I don't recall instances where players should have moved the runner along and failed because of personal agendas. Occasionally, players advanced runners with bunts that seemed out of place. Certainly nobody had sacrifice hit clauses. There was talk of players placing personal goals ahead of team goals. Was that about Wakefield or someone else? Certainly Ortiz would have liked to have had 100 RBI, and that didn't happen. Was that an underlying theme in the clubhouse?

Just because we don't know the facts doesn't mean they don't exist. What is the Red Sox way? Is it more like the Red Sox Weigh? Which GM selects the new sheriff to clean up the town? Is there an unwritten timetable around the World Series?

The only question that should be on the plate of ownership, the GM, and the new manager should be "what must be done to return the team to contending form"? This year turned into pretending. If some players have acted as spoiled children, then adult leadership needs to apply the discipline required. If the Sox clubhouse became Pleasure Island, then no wonder they all looked like jackasses in the end.

How Moneyball Ruined Baseball

2011-10-04T12:38:00.000-04:00

The wanting comes from not having. Red Sox fans suffered almost a century without a championship, and then got two within four seasons. They had some luck and pluck, and of course, the 'run prevention' before it became a design, with outstanding pitching from Schilling, Martinez, Lowe, and Lester, and more.

Baseball started to retreat into oblivion in America with the LaRussan Gambit, the left-right, four pitchers in an inning tedium that helped the Oakland A's become a power. But it's reached its nadir in interest (and watchability) not because of steroids or science (instructional and game video), but because of mathematics.

Who are the best pitchers on your team, generally? The starters, with not only power, but an assortment of pitches, and of course, pitching skill. If were all about stuff, then Andrew Miller would be a premium starter. So just as in Michael Lewis' "Blind Side", the left tackle position became critical to defeat the blind side rushers like Lawrence Taylor, baseball's stat geeks (like the Red Sox' own Bill James) developed a COUNTER for premium starting pitching.

Baseball no longer sought only sluggers, but players who could 'work the count', have quality at bats, and wear down the opponent's starters, fighting a war of attrition, away from the best pitchers into the soft underbelly of the enemy bullpen. If you're not happy with the Matt Albers and Franklin Morales of the Sox pen, then similarly most teams feel likewise about their pen pals.

Granted, the hitters who can foul off innumerable pitches or show 'plate discipline' are in limited supply. We can recall the Rod Carew or Wade Boggs or Johnny Damon who could have those 6, 8, 10 pitch at bats, but now 'taking pitches' has become an art form. The Sox have a plethora of hitters who can drive pitch counts to astronomical heights, the Yankees have the Jeter, Swisher, Teixeira types in their lineup who do the same.

And what you get is boredom, disinterest, and games that routinely go past four hours. Has the national pastime seen it's time pass?

Baseball has the potential for plenty of exciting plays, with steals, hit-and-runs, electric double plays, and home run robbing catches. But watching guys take an ever-increasing number of pitches? Tony LaRussa and Billy Beane, pioneers of modern baseball, or its destroyers?

The Big Shot

2011-10-02T20:18:00.000-04:00

Jackie McMullen did a great job of laying out the warts on the 2011 Red Sox. Can you really die from a thousand paper cuts?

The Red Sox fired Terry Francona (don't reinvent history) because the players tuned him out. Replacing one man is easier than twenty-five. And understanding the complex personalities in twenty-first century baseball won't be solved by a whiz kid.

If you believe that leadership matters, then you'll need a strong manager, and that may depend on what direction ownership goes with the GM. In other words, there's a trickle-down leadership theory. If you get an uber-strong manager, you won't get an inflexible, power-crazed GM, probably something more of a puppet for you know whom.

The team needs to decide what the new 'core' is.

Dustin Pedroia should be named Captain, and the Sox need to get 'hungrier', however you do that. The question is whether they have to clean house or just sanitize a sunshine-free clubhouse.

Can you rehabilitate the clubhouse without getting rid of the greybeards and disaffected? I don't think so, and that means not resigning Tim Wakefield and Jason Varitek. Loyalty is a two-way street, and there's no $ in loyalty.

1B - Gonzalez...does he really need attitude adjustment or just more happiness?
2B - Pedroia...the heart and soul of the team
SS - Will a Lowrie/Iglesias platoon allow a decision to come down?
3B - Youkilis. A terrific player wearing down from injury and a questionable influence (per the MSM).
LF - Crawford will be better. He can't be more mediocre.
CF - Ellsbury. The Anointed One. Will he even think of staying if there's a rift with unspecified players and him?
RF - Open competition between Kalish and Reddick. Are the Sox too left-handed? Doubt the Sox will want to spend here with pitching needs.
C - Saltalamacchia and Lavarnway - can Lavarnway fit in the DH picture?
DH - Maybe the hardest question of all. Ortiz has remained productive and a face of the franchise...and with a big salary for a DH.
Utility - Aviles played well. He seems like a keeper.

SP - Beckett, Lester, Buchholz
SP4 - Lackey - bad contract, bad attitude, bad guy or misunderstood? If the Sox could trade his bad contract for somebody else's bad contract, then everyone might be less miserable
SP4a - This will probably be a TOP priority of free agency
SP5 - Can Weiland, Doubront, or Alex Wilson step up?
SP6 - Sox clearly have to know that they need far more pitching depth.

Setup - Bard, far from a lost cause
Closer - High priority after managerial issue

PRIORITIES:

GM decision
Manager
DH
Closer
Starting pitching
Right-field
Shortstop

Off-the books:

J.D. Drew 14 Million
Tim Wakefield 1.5 Million
Jason Varitek 2 Million
Marco Scutaro 6 Million
? David Ortiz 12.5 million

Salary rising:

Gonzalez (a lot)
Pedroia (2.5 M)
Ellsbury (TBA)
Lester (2 M)

Arms Race

2011-10-01T20:02:00.002-04:00

You hear a lot of talk about Tampa making the playoffs as though it were some incredible statistical aberration. The substantial part of the problem follows the in-house development of the Rays' rotation, compared to the outhouse performance of the Red Sox rotation. The Sox allowed 123 more runs than the Rays this year. We used to hear about run prevention, now the Sox lead the league in 'spin'.

The Rays can run out David Price, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, and Matt Moore.

The Red Sox "Big Three" of Josh Beckett, John Lester, and Clay Buchholz either struggled or were MIA down the stretch, although Lester's final game quality start shouldn't be dismissed. Running a lackluster Lackey, an aged Wakefield, and unproven Weiland out there proved to be a mound of trouble. If being a great guy were qualifications, then we should see if the Dali Lama were available for the Sox rotation.

Nobody's saying Felix Doubront, Anthony Ranaudo, Weiland, or Alex Wilson are ready to step in at a level approaching the Tampa staff. That's the crux of the problem, the Sox are losing the arms race.

If you want to get somewhere, then you better have a plan on how to get there. Currently, the Sox have talent, but suffer organizational disarray and dysfunction. The Red Sox way? What is that? The Sox need to articulate a new plan, a new code, something beyond 'throw money at it'. Their charitable endeavors and media empire be praised, Sox fans want to see a better product on the field.

It's hard to stand tall, if there's nothing you stand for.

Maybe the Dali Lama put it simply, “Open your arms to change, but don't let go of your values.”

Fran-goner

2011-09-30T22:41:00.000-04:00

I don't feel bad for Terry Francona. I feel relieved for him. Francona helped to deliver a pair of championships to Boston fans, and he treated athletes like men, like professionals, and got stabbed in the back by them. I'm happy that he can leave the asylum on the 'task oriented' (hard guys) and 'player-oriented' roller coaster.

This town has always been about accountability, of management. Players, "our boys", seldom get the scrutiny they might. In psychology they call it "ownership bias". They get love, respect, admiration, and (coloring our provincial view) lots of money. I don't have a problem with athletes saying they play for the money or choose where they sign for the money. That could be as honest as the day is long. But how many have become so 'big' that it's become about them, and not about the team or the organization?

What exactly did Francona "own"? Did he own bad attitudes, selfishness, underachievement, injuries, and distractions? What he owned was the accountability that players seem to avoid.

I have no problem with the Sox giving Francona the deep six. Management has the right to fire any employee contractually. But the problem never lays at the feet of the players, the ones who collectively lacked the intensity, the guts, the will, and the heart to play hard, play smart, and play together.

All too often, the Sox have tried to get by on talent alone, instead of making good fundamental baseball decisions. The players own the successes they've earned, but they own a large part of the epic collapse and underachievement of the 2011 Red Sox. They didn't let the city or the fans down. They sold professionalism and themselves short.

Bear Market Action in Boston Baseball

2011-09-29T22:19:00.000-04:00

The Red Sox might have been a championship team at some point during the season, but when it mattered most, they lacked the horses, the heart, and the smarts to get it done.

Their "playoffs" were a best of three at Camden Yards against the Woes. And when asked to rise to the challenge against the least of the east, the Sox couldn't execute well enough.

The Sox had some players who executed and never quit, Pedroia with a home run and at least four brilliant plays, two double play turns, a catch of an Aviles throw and a stop of a grounder. Jon Lester worked six strong innings allowing a pair of runs.

But that's far too simple. Baseball isn't a game where 'bearing down' necessarily makes the man. You can grind the bat into sawdust, but that won't help. Gripping the ball tighter decreases the flexibility in the wrist, inhibiting natural movement.

But we need a villain, someone to blame. It's Terry Francona for not being 'tough enough' in the never-ending cycle of 'task-oriented' versus 'people-oriented' managers. Or it's Theo Epstein who overspent and underproduced. Let's blame J.D. Drew (for being hurt) or fault the gods who allowed Kevin Youkilis and Clay Buchholz to be injured.

I do believe that the Sox abysmal start directly resulted from a lackadaisical spring training where the team believed their talent level would allow them to "turn it on" when the bright lights came on. That diminishes the credit that teams deserve who beat the Sox. The early season wipeout in Texas foretold the problems the Sox would have later.

The Sox have a plethora of decisions: GM, manager, shortstop, DH, and right-field are all areas that require attention. The pitching staff now lacks a closer with free agency, and they need how to rebuild the rotation after Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz. Can John Lackey get over his issues? Is Felix Doubront a viable option as a starter? Does Ryan Kalish need another year or can he compete for the right-field position bringing talent and intensity? Or are the Sox simply too left-handed?

Is Terry Francona the problem or have the players simply not collectively been able to be professionals, when given the chance? Player accountability has always surfaced as an issue. Not everybody loved Jim Rice, but he always took responsibility. Are there guys who just simply need to go because they can't play here?

Is the money the problem? Is underachievement a 'relative' term, based on perceived production per dollar? Carl Crawford had an "average" season for the final years of Mike Greenwell. But Greenwell was a media darling and Crawford comes off as surly at times. As fans we do see performance through the prism of pay. Whose fault is that?

Bottom line? The Sox didn't deserve to make the playoffs, and I won't mourn a team that won a handful of games in September. The denouement of the 2011 season really had a perfect ending, the end-of-game, end-of-month, end-of-season weakness seen in bear markets. If only we could have been short the Sox.

Why I Should Be the Next Red Sox Manager

2011-09-24T17:07:00.001-04:00

I've pretty much heard it all lately, but I should add this to the ever-growing cacophony of calls for Terry Francona's head. "Why I should be the next Red Sox manager."

The Big Picture - Health. Trust me, I'm a doctor, not an Orthopedic surgeon, but better yet a multi-specialty trained physician. I deal with not only physical ailments, but mental health problems as well (critical when dealing with Sox players). A substantial part of the Sox problem has been health-related. I could fact check the medical staffs report directly, not having to run it through 'channels'. I've been in academic medicine and president of a medical staff, so I know the egomaniacs and political intrigue accompanying.

I've got the corporate memory, the Rogelio Moret breakdown, Trot Nixon's fractured transverse process (see Clay Buchholz), the Marty Barrett fiasco, Matt Young with Steve Blass disease, and an unnamed former Sox physician, who when told by a former player that it hurts to raise his arm, said, "then don't do that".

Experience. I played baseball into college where I had a 'terrible not mediocre' career. There's no reason for Red Sox front office personnel to worry about my never having been across the lines.

Great players seldom become great managers. See the managerial careers of Ted Williams and Frank Robinson for example. I've coached girls' basketball for years, and as one former Massachusetts Hall of Fame Basketball coach told me, "it's a soap opera every day." In other words, the Red Sox' job wouldn't be a big challenge, just different.

Moneyball. I've read the book, literally. I didn't HAVE to see the movie. I've got The New Bill James on my bookshelf, along with Rob Neyer's book on pitching, The Fielding Bible, and so forth. I literally stopped playing fantasy baseball (see Prodigy) because I won three out of four years. Pitch charts, pitch counts, and fielding sprays charts are part of my everyday lexicon. OPS, DME, UZR are just VIPs in the DMZ, FYI.

Media Friendly. I haven't stooped to lower levels (Bag Heads, for example) as cheap and dirty shots on the team. I have maintained radio silence during the Sox "rough patch", rather than pile on, like most media. I have my own sports television show on Cable TV, and haven't said a harsh word about Theo or The Trio.

Social Media. Although I have a Twitter and Facebook site, I've also been gentle with the Red Sox there.

Loyalty. Although I've lived out of the area, following the Orioles for ten years while in Maryland, I've never turned my back on the Bosox despite the lengthy championship drought to 2004. I never revealed the source of the "Curse of Dr. (Fill in the Blank)", whose firing by the Yankees led to the Bombers' championship drought.

Intangibles. Half Asian-American scores me points. Local kid, check. Distrust the local sports media? Daniel Shaughnessy. Is it an anagram, "Dan Lies As She Hugs NY?"

Want to talk with management? I can talk commodities, trends, price, pattern, and seasonality, sovereign debt, sovereignty and interest rate risk, margin calls and out calls.

Let's face it, it's mine to lose. "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss."

Condiments

2011-08-28T20:25:00.000-04:00

The Red Sox are a billion dollar business, an international media empire, and a franchise that parlays relationships into dollars. I have NO PROBLEM with that. Envy? Heck, I'm greener than the Incredible Hulk.

Signs on every centimeter of "America's Most Beloved Ballpark" won't bother me. Dunkin Donuts? Love 'em. VOLVO. Why not parent company GEELY, too? John Hancock? I wish I'd signed them up. Budweiser? For you, baby. There are so many more that I hate to leave them out.

But can't we have more? Who's the official necktie maker of the Boston Red Sox? I mean, you do want to be prepared if Sox Version 2011 goes down the crapper...supported by F.W. Webb, naturally. If we have to run Theo Epstein out of town, will he be wearing New Balance sneakers? And if he's flying to Chicago to take the Cubs job, will he fly Jet Blue? Do the Cubs write their request for permission to talk to the Trio on stationery from W.B. Mason?

When Daniel Bard gets overworked, do we turn to Sullivan Tire?

Alright, so maybe the Sox haven't dipped to Dante-like depths to advertise monuments, marital aids, law firms (can that NOT be next?), mercenary companies, or firearms. Now I'm ~~not~~ implying that any of these American institutions lack merit. They're just not appropriate for the family-oriented sport that encourages stealing (looking for league leaders), retaliation (even when none is due) via headhunting (say it ain't so, Pedro), and relies on the human element to tolerate (mostly) bad umpiring. Even the wannabes in Williamsport have a limited form of instant replay indicating a trend toward modernism and technological advancement.

Really now, how do I apply to become the Official Blog of Red Sox Nation? Do you take checks?

"It's Tough"

2011-08-27T18:05:00.000-04:00

Peter Gammons appeared on NESN during a rain delay and declared "it's tough", concerning the issues surrounding rain delays and baseball. Gammons has Hall of Fame credentials and proved his toughness recovering from a stroke. All that being said, let's put this in perspective...realizing that the first game is in the hands of the umpires.

Yes, Sox management has not always done itself proud in the handling of rain and rainouts. Favoring play are the lateness in the season, schedule, Oakland alternative availability. Not so favorable are the possibility of player injury from poor field conditions and inconvenience to fans forced to sit through lengthy rain delays.

Did I add money? According to Forbes, the Red Sox have 171 million dollars in gate receipts...missing a home date almost equals Jacoby Ellsbury's 2011 salary. Last time I checked, nobody holds you hostage at Fenway Park, and as my son adds, "if you fill the park every game, then you're not charging enough." Businesses work to create a feel good environment, where customers get fair treatment at a fair price. The Sox weigh getting the games in versus the fan angst that Mother Nature and Daddy Dollars create.

All that being said, "tough" is homelessness, a family struggling to pay the bills with underemployment, children who might not go to college because of economic turmoil, ordinary people with extraordinary circumstances of poor health, bad luck, or some bad choices.

Certainly, I'm not saying that the Red Sox (who do a lot of philanthropy through their Foundation and the Jimmy Fund) or Peter Gammons aren't good citizens. Maybe I'm just parsing words. I'd just try to reserve "tough" for truly deserving moments and count our blessings.

Surprise, Surprise

2011-08-26T20:03:00.000-04:00

Certain parts of the baseball season truly do surprise us; others not so much. Naturally, we have both positive and negative surprises.

First, the positive.

Jonathan Papelbon. It wasn't as though Papelbon forgot how to pitch, but he had negative trends in both ERA and the underpinning, K/9 IP and K/BB ratio. At times he became a one-pitch pitcher; he knew it and they knew. In his contract year, he didn't reinvent himself, he just did whatever it took to regain effectiveness AND get paid.

Jacoby Ellsbury. After a lost season in 2010, Ellsbury returned to be one of the top players in the AL. Top 4 in hits, runs, and stolen bases, and top 10 in OPS and RBI, out of the leadoff spot. As for Yankee fans, I won't insult you in saying that he's been as good as Granderson, but spare me the Brett Gardner and Ellsbury are the same player talk.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia. The young veteran came in as a big question mark, but has been productive offensively and is 4th in runs created per 27 at bats. He's also thrown out 9 of the past 20 runners, and has the disadvantage of catching Tim Wakefield.

Dustin Pedroia. Well, can you expect too much from a previous MVP? After returning from season-ending injury and surgery, Pedroia has been perhaps better than ever defensively and at least as productive as during his MVP season. Although some hate the WAR (wins above replacement stat), Pedroia has excelled there, although falling to 16th in OPS. Pedroia is tenth in runs scored and sixth in the AL in the Sabermetric runs created.

Josh Beckett. Beckett had an injury and ineffectiveness-filled 2010. But in 2011, with the added burden of having Clay Buchholz out for much of the season, Beckett rebounded with power pitching, the fourth best ERA among AL starters and leads the team in innings pitched.

Now the lesser luminaries.

Carl Crawford. Fans and management expected a lot from a historically productive player, especially one with the hype and the big price tag. Yes, he's shown flashes, with some game winning hits and recent production, but nobody, including CC himself feels good about the production so far. There's a gap between production and caring, and one has to hope the left-fielder, who does care gets it in gear down the stretch.

J.D. Drew. Drew is the forgotten man, with an injury and low production during his contract year. There's simply not much to say about a guy who has never cultivated a following or sought adulation. It's fair to say that a collective "we" never knew Drew, and to his credit, he never sought to ingratiate himself via the media.

Surely there are others who outperformed expectations (Aceves, Albers , and Miller) and didn't (McDonald) but you usually win because the stars were stars, not because the understudy got the curtain call.

And although we have a panoply of stats to support our various arguments, usually your mind's eye sees the players about the same way as the statistics. There aren't a lot of Satch Sanders full-time contributors with few stats in baseball.

Harsh? I'm Not Sure

2011-08-22T21:49:00.000-04:00

With less than a quarter of the regular season remaining, all of us have our observations. Not all will be right, but we should remember Richard Pryor's best, "who are you going to believe, your beloved husband or your lying eyes?"

The Red Sox have survived a terrible start, a series of important injuries, and the dog days to remain in solid contention for either the AL East title or the wild card. But everything isn't great, especially with the injury front. We have to presume that Jacoby Ellsbury will return effective, while it's hardly as clear with Kevin Youkilis (back), and David Ortiz (foot).

I have no insight into their medical situations, but Ortiz struggled after inter-league play, and there's no reason to think he will return to effectiveness straightaway. As for back problems (Youkilis), you never can tell. Just ask Clay Buchholz.

You don't have to be Einstein to know that Carl Crawford has disappointed his employers and himself. Relax, CC. I'm more concerned by an Abreu-like tendency for Carl to lose concentration near walls. I'm not saying that I'd be running into walls, either, but for a "Gold Glove" leftfielder, he hasn't been great defensively.

The Sox no longer lead the AL in runs scored. That shouldn't be too surprising with a trio of all-stars on the bench.

As for the "playoff starting rotation", I'm inclined to a Belichickian, "we aren't in the playoffs," with the "win today" mentality. Eric Bedard had the reputation as being 'soft', but from all reports, he's been pleasant and enjoying the pennant race atmosphere.

Major League umpiring leaves a lot to be desired. I don't believe that tradition is immutable in the face of technological advances. Probably nothing will replace mediocrity at calling balls and strikes, but homers/fair and foul/catch and no catch? Should I be using leeches for my patients because of medical tradition?

Albert Pujols got off to a horrendous start in his contract year. Check lately?
Through April and May he had nine homers. Now he's at 31.

Is there an advantage to being a game behind the Yankees? Absolutely, regarding blocking and claiming players on the waiver wire. We can only guess who the Bombers might want (relievers?).

A Tweeter asked how many Sox players have college degrees. Last time I checked, I don't think that's holding them back too much concerning their earning power. By the way, the respondent said Jed Lowrie (Stanford) and Ryan Lavarnway (Yale). Well, if you have to graduate from somewhere, those would be good choices.

Observations

2011-08-13T14:28:00.000-04:00

"If nothing goes wrong, is everything all right?"

The AL standards don't show that the Red Sox are 71-34 after a disastrous start (we'll just pretend that didn't happen), but they do show the Sox leading the AL and second in run differential. Among the playoff contenders, who creates the worst matchup? Detroit has the best pitcher in the league, Justin Verlander, who is a major weapon in a short series. Texas has better balance and the Red Sox are 6-16 against Texas in the past three seasons.

In other words, as well as the Red Sox have played this season, the road isn't as simple as many think it might be.

Objectively speaking.

Jon Lester. "What have you done for me lately?" Expecting Lester to be Sandy Koufax isn't reasonable. Lester remains one of the best pitchers in the AL, but he's not invincible. In the past five starts (30.2 innings), he's allowed ten earned runs, but his strikeout to walk ratio (30/13) has fallen off. Coincidentally, this relates to his prior injury. Only time will tell whether he's 100% or just having a spell of "more mortality".

Josh Reddick. The right-fielder has tailed off a little lately, despite his monster jack last night. He is nine for thirty-one in August with an .837 OPS. The answer for major league players is always about adjustments. Pitchers are working him with fastballs away and breaking stuff and off-speed pitches down. Last night Blake Beavan threw a fast ball down and in to Reddick and he lost it. The best pitchers make the fewest mistakes and the best players make adjustments. This was a simple case of a mistake being punished.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Since June, the Red Sox catcher is 40 for 139 (almost .290) with 27 runs scored and 23 RBI with seven homers. Aside from struggling with some Lackey pitches in the dirt last night, his defense and throwing have become very serviceable. It's unfair to compare his catching ERA with Varitek's, as he usually handles Lackey and Wakefield, the higher ERA pitchers.

Matt Albers. Albers helped carry the bullpen...until August. It's not clear whether fewer opportunities have meant diminished performance or vice versa. His ERA is 5.79 and you get the feeling he's on a shorter leash.

"Baseball is a marathon, not a sprint." Observers have to tease out trending from random performance variation. All of the above performance reports could be simply statistical fluctuation rather than meaningful trends. But you can't spot trend changes without some measurements, and the Red Sox organization has a deep metric-based organization to assess their players.

Sox Are Honey Badgers of MLB?

2011-08-07T12:17:00.000-04:00

Yes, I want to believe that the Sox are untouchable. But I digress. Recently with Dustin Pedroia on first and two outs, Gonzalez blooped a single to right center. Pedroia, a great baserunner, advanced only to second and therefore didn't score on the next hit.

Meanwhile there was an uncomfortable silence from Don and Jerry. First, Jerry sees everything and Orsillo has been broadcaster of the year. So while we pat ourselves on the back as baseball aficionados, we can't handle the truth?

It turned out to be a moot point, because David Ortiz hit a grand slam.
Still, I came away dissatisfied with something less than journalistic integrity.

This isn't meant to be a condemnation of the Sox scrappy second baseman, having a great season or of NESN. We all err and we really can handle the truth.

Trot Nixon forgot how many outs there were and flipped a ball into the stands and recently Youkilis got thrown out at home with no outs iirc, again without commentary. We can love the Sox and yet get the broadcast truth. We've suffered the losses and realized the joy and we can handle the truth.

Salty No Dog

2011-07-30T20:30:00.000-04:00

The Red Sox came into Spring Training with a few question marks, which got exaggerated during their abysmal 2-10 start. The expected "holes" were catcher and possibly shortstop.

This lists AL catchers with at least 125 plate appearances, ranked by OPS (click chart to enlarge). The Yankees' Russell Martin got off to a torrid start, but don't think that they're in a hurry to trade either Jesus Montero or Austin Romine.

Offensively, Saltalamacchia approaches Martin's numbers with far few plate appearances, and has almost the same amount of 'runs created' in Sabermetric parlance.

Salty doesn't have the same "catcher's ERA" as some others, but he also has caught a disproportionate share of John Lackey and Tim Wakefield, which can't be helping his stats.

Suffice it to say, I don't think most Sox fans see catcher as a need right now.

Blunderbud

2011-07-27T19:13:00.000-04:00

Commissioner Bud Selig, the highest member of baseball's hierarchy, hasn't exactly gone out of his way to support instant replay. In most fields of endeavor, politics and religion notwithstanding, "getting it right" becomes a priority not interference.

But not baseball. Baseball finds error romantic. Don Denkinger, author of the blown call at first base in the 1985 World Series doesn't like being remembered mostly for a series changing call. Jim Joyce's blown call cost Armando Galarraga a chance at baseball immortality by taking away his no-hitter last year. And last night the Pirates lost when Jerry Meals spit the bit on a scoring play in the 19th inning. Baseball acknowledged the blown call.

Baseball occasionally reverses itself. George Brett's home run in the 1983 "pine tar" game was protested and reinstated. And if replay can't be justified and human error adds pastoral value to the game, then why did baseball opt for replays for home runs?

Baseball will eventually follow the technological revolution further, to other boundary calls (e.g. fair/foul), and potentially have a smorgasbord of calls to review:

Boundary calls
Catch/trap
Safe/out on tags or "ball beats runner"
Foul tip into the dirt, strikeout or foul ball
Hit by pitch
Running lane interference (to first base)

Ideally, baseball will introduce a limited challenge approach analogous to football, with the same "indisputable evidence" rules. Yes, I know that certain 'fixtures' in the game, like Peter Gammons will argue for the status quo. But at the end of the day, getting the call right has meaning. It meant something to the Cardinals in 1985, to Galarraga last season, and who knows when it will mean something to local baseball fans?

Not Mirrors

2011-07-26T22:17:00.001-04:00

Theo Epstein has taken plenty of grief for the management moves that haven't worked out. Even with a pair of World Series championships, Boston might still be considered a "glass half empty" town. Maybe we haven't booed Santa Claus, but while I'm waiting patiently, I won't say that it couldn't happen.

Click to enlarge.

Here's the top ten OPS in the AL among qualifiers. You'll notice that the Red Sox have FIVE of the leaders, while no other team has more than two. You'll also recognize that three (Youkilis, Ellsbury, and Pedroia) all came through the Red Sox developmental system.

Player evaluation, just as everything else in Boston, is an inexact discipline. The Red Sox have been pioneers in using all the resources available to them (process) to optimize their performance. I'm sure that the general manager has had his share of 'agita' over the results at times, but he does deserve a lot of credit, even as a "big market" GM.

Hall of Fame Restructuring? Sure, the Juice Bar

2011-07-24T11:13:00.000-04:00

Bill James wrote the book Whatever Became of the Hall of Fame? Therein lies the lament of those who got in and didn't and sometimes why. Veterans Committee members helped elect friends, and marginal candidates got in because they did.

Do we need a Super Hall of Fame, the real pantheon of greatness, that contains only the best of the best...like Ruth, Matthewson, Williams, Cobb, Mays, Aaron, and so on? Or do we need the "Juice Bar" wing, where Bonds, McGwire, Palmeiro, A-Rod, and others can be recognized, with a flavorful asterisk?

It would be crazy to think that Red Sox players didn't participate in what we recognize as wide-spread cheating scandals. Certainly, we know Manny Ramirez did (failed drug tests), and one has to wonder about MANY others with either oversized muscle and physiques, or whether suddenly outsized performance. None of us can name names, but wink-wink, nod-nod, we all have an idea.

The separate but equal argument holds that both position players and pitchers cheated, ergo nullifying the advantage. That opinion also suggests that we can't know, so we can't judge. We can know who's on the list of 103, but we probably won't.

Did performance-enhancing drugs really make a difference? I wrote an article years ago comparing top sluggers of all time (pre-1980) first five full seasons average homers to their peak home run years. The same analysis showed dramatic and statistically signficant differences to "steroid era" performance. For example, during his first five years, Hank Aaron averaged 28 homers (peak 44)...and his best year he hit 47 in Atlanta in the "Launching Pad". As for Rafael Palmeiro, during his first FULL five years he hit 78 homers, average 15.6, peak 26, and during his best year he hit 47 (twice). Is it plausible that contemporary players, at advanced ages, improved that much relative to historical greats?

Looks like normal aging to me.

The Curious Case of J.D. Drew

2011-07-20T21:21:00.000-04:00

As we approach the end of the J.D. Drew era, what can we conclude about the enigmatic right fielder? His Churchillian 'finest hour' came during the 2007 post-season, with a critical grand slam against Fausto Carmona. At other times, he was capable of carrying the team with mercurial, epic heights; occasionally, although playing hard he seemed indifferent.

We love guys who wear their heart on their sleeve. Kevin Youkilis disappoints. He punishes equipment and looks penitent and fretful. Dustin Pedroia strikes out and curses the day he was born. He even gets a base hit and spins around while running to scream at the umpire over perceived indignity. But Drew approaches the marathon with as even-temper as is humanly possible. He seems to be a machine, one that gets good jumps on balls hit his way, throws accurately and well, hits the cutoff man, and runs the bases with quiet efficiency.

Baseball is a game of failure. Three successes of ten at the plate make you an all-star. Four of ten hasn't occurred for seventy years. We have blown saves, caught stealing, missed signs and other transgressions. And to quote George Carlin, the game is played at the park, not War Memorial Stadium. Every player has a finite playing mortality and Drew's seems to have come prematurely.

Or not. I don't think for a minute Drew used performance-enhancing drugs. But Peter Gammons cautioned that after drug testing came on the scene, mid 30's guys would start playing like, well, older players. The immutable (unenhanced) laws of physiology and aging have returned to the game. Home runs are down, scoring is down.

We need shed no tears for J.D. Drew, and in fact, part of his problem emanates from our expectation of performance per year...PER DOLLAR. And most of us contend, with statistical support, that even at his best, Drew didn't match OUR expectations. We want to compare the contemporary player's salary to our heroes, reminiscing that Drew was no Yaz or Lynn or Dewey.

Did Drew give ever not give an honest effort, play hard, or shirk any of his duties? I think not. But maybe he never was one of "our guys"; as Shakespeare would remind, "the fault lies not in our stars but in ourselves."

The Curious Case of J.D. Drew

2011-07-20T21:17:00.000-04:00

As we approach the end of the J.D. Drew era, what can we conclude about the enigmatic right fielder? His Churchillian 'finest hour' came during the 2007 post-season, with a critical grand slam against Fausto Carmona. At other times, he was capable of carrying the team with mercurial, epic heights; occasionally, although playing hard he seemed indifferent.

We love guys who wear their heart on their sleeve. Kevin Youkilis disappoints. He punishes equipment and looks penitent and fretful. Dustin Pedroia strikes out and curses the day he was born. He even gets a base hit and spins around while running to scream at the umpire over perceived indignity. But Drew approaches the marathon with as even-temper as is humanly possible. He seems to be a machine, one that gets good jumps on balls hit his way, throws accurately and well, hits the cutoff man, and runs the bases with quiet efficiency.

Baseball is a game of failure. Three successes of ten at the plate make you an all-star. Four of ten hasn't occurred for seventy years. We have blown saves, caught stealing, missed signs and other transgressions. And to quote George Carlin, the game is played at the park, not War Memorial Stadium. Every player has a finite playing mortality and Drew's seems to have come prematurely.

Or not. I don't think for a minute Drew used performance-enhancing drugs. But Peter Gammons cautioned that after drug testing came on the scene, mid 30's guys would start playing like, well, older players. The immutable (unenhanced) laws of physiology and aging have returned to the game. Home runs are down, scoring is down.

We need shed no tears for J.D. Drew, and in fact, part of his problem emanates from our expectation of performance per year...PER DOLLAR. And most of us contend, with statistical support, that even at his best, Drew didn't match OUR expectations. We want to compare the contemporary player's salary to our heroes, reminiscing that Drew was no Yaz or Lynn or Dewey.

Did Drew give an honest effort, play hard, or shirk any of his duties? I think not. But maybe he never was one of "our guys"; as Shakespeare would remind, "the fault lies not in our stars but in ourselves."

It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

2011-07-13T22:08:00.000-04:00

We tend (believe it or not) to accept overachievement as the norm and underachievement as the exception. In reality, player and team performance regularly varies, sometimes dramatically. Even within a season, you have periods where players struggle (e.g. Dustin Pedroia), then catch fire. It all evens out...not really.

So as we prepare for the second half, including the trade deadline, what observations can we make?

Who's Hot, or Overachievers?

Jacoby Ellsbury
David Ortiz
Daniel Bard
Josh Beckett
Josh Reddick
Matt Albers
Adrian Gonzalez
Catching platoon
Tim Wakefield
Andrew Miller
Alfredo Aceves

Goldilocks performance, about right?

Jon Lester
Jonathan Papelbon
Clay Buchholz (pre-injury)
Dustin Pedroia
Kevin Youkilis
Jed Lowrie (averaged, including injury)

Who's Cold, or less than expected?

J.D. Drew
Carl Crawford
John Lackey
Marco Scutaro
Darnell McDonald

MVP: Adrian Gonzalez

Comeback player: Jacoby Ellsbury

Who might matter the most in the second half? Clay Buchholz

Jeter Gets 3000th Hit with Home Run

2011-07-09T22:57:00.000-04:00

Derek Jeter achieved a career milestone with a 5-for-5 day, and game winning hit, getting the 3000th with homerun. The Yankee captain did so at home against division rival Tampa and Red Sox nation has to be happy for a long-time rival.

Jeter's career and five championship rings mark him as a first ballot Hall of Famer, and he's done nothing to tarnish his reputation off the field.

Nonetheless, the Red Sox go to bed in first place, a game ahead of the Yankees, with rookie Kyle Weiland facing the Birds tomorrow.

Success and OPS

2011-07-09T10:03:00.002-04:00

It doesn't take a lot of imagination to see why the Red Sox are in first place in the AL East.

Click the chart to enlarge.

They have four players in the top 17 in OPS, and three among the top eight. Kevin Youkilis is underrated in this regard, even with some health struggles lately.

The Sox lead the league in runs (the final common denominator), on base percentage, slugging percentage, and on-base slugging percentage OPS.

Defensively, they have the third fewest errors with 44, just behind Tampa (42) and Chicago (43)...statistically, this isn't significantly different.

On the mound, they have moved up to eighth in ERA (3.94) after a horrendous start and despite the struggles of John Lackey. Of course, omitting Lackey would be like measuring inflation without including food and energy prices. Golly, we do that!

And I'm not wild about trading the restocked farm system for Andre' Ethier either. You think Ellsbury money is growing on trees? Ethier's OPS is .827, not much different from Pedroia's and FAR LOWER than Drew's three year (2008-2010) .874. That's the fact, Jack.

Who do you think has more "black ink" points (league leader) for their career, Derek Jeter or Dustin Pedroia?

Carl Yastrzemski 55
Wade Boggs 37
Jim Rice 33
Don Mattingly 23
Cal Ripken 19
Adrian Gonzalez 16
Dwight Evans 15
Fred Lynn 15
Dustin Pedroia 11
Jacoby Ellsbury 7
Derek Jeter 6
Bobby Murcer 3
Carlton Fisk 1

Catch as Catch Can

2011-07-07T22:01:00.000-04:00

Before the season, most observers wondered about the productivity the Red Sox would receive from the catching position. An aging Jason Varitek and an unproven Jarrod Saltalamacchia didn't inspire an abundance of confidence. But as we head into the All-Star break, a funny thing happened on the way to Arizona.

Among AL catchers with at least 100 plate appearances, the Red Sox duo rank 5-6, and combined would lead in runs scored, doubles, and be second in runs batted in. Of course, this doesn't include Saltalamacchia's tater tonight. Okay, they'd also lead in strikeouts, but you take the bitter with the sweet.

Doctor NO!

2011-07-06T11:13:00.000-04:00

Growing up, we read about sports, the on-the-field, he (mostly he) did this or didn't do that. Sports nowadays gets intricately intertwined with societal malaise: medicine, lawyers, and money.

The lead story of the day is Roger Clemens trial. Was it injury, pride, greed, or something else that allegedly turned Clemens to seek professional help?

The other stories du jour about the Red Sox are Lester (lat strain), Youkilis (hit by pitch injury, foot injury, etc), Buchholz (back pain), the forgotten Jed Lowrie (shoulder), and so forth. The good news is that Jacoby Ellsbury goes to the All-Star game instead of to the doctor and that the Adrian Gonzalez to right field story didn't end up in the training room.

Meanwhile, the NFL and the NBA fight the perennial billionaires versus millionaires fight, and sports journalists need secondary law degrees to report on the story. Strike, lockout, work stoppage, National Labor Relations board, mediation, retirees file to join suit, blah-blah-blah.

Well, there are occasional sports stories to wonder about...Derek Jeter approaching 3,000 hits, but then there's Albert Pujols, with an injury story AND impending free agency.

Miller Time

2011-06-20T19:35:00.000-04:00

We have the "official voices" saying, "don't get too excited about Andrew Miller, he hasn't been very good in the majors." Thanks for nothing.

If you haven't written for a major newspaper or have your own show, you know nothing. You can't remember Billy Rohr, Bobby Sprowl, Ken Brett, David Clyde, or Brien Taylor. You add nothing to the discussion, because the chosen ones say so.

Baseball, like most endeavors, is the sum of your individual experiences. Nobody writing blogs with a small following could ever express anything worthwhile. Actually, most of us should probably just crawl back into the sorry, dark holes from whence we came.

But some fans, believe it or not, have watched, studied, or maybe even played and had the chance to succeed occasionally and fail more often because of our love of the game. Yes, none of us are going into Cooperstown, but assuredly, most of "Boston's elite" aren't going in either.

Some of us enjoy watching the development of young, untested players. Maybe we see them somehow as closer to us, mere mortals searching for ephemeral greatness or more.

But what do the pundits have for us? "Go away, little ones. You cannot dare to speak, let alone sit at the table." Only they have the wit and wisdom to discern who will succeed, when and where, simply because. On the other hand, we suffer the forlorn childhood of a Jane Eyre, undeserving of the Rochesters of the fourth estate.

You know who you are. Give it a rest.

Hall of Fame Material?

2011-06-19T21:48:00.000-04:00

This week there's been an inordinate amount of Johnny Damon for the Hall of Fame talk. It reminds me of Bill James' book, "Whatever Became of the Hall of Fame?"

Both Player A and Player B had lengthy major league careers. Damon is Player A. Player B didn't have the stolen bases that Damon had, but had over 300 more RBI so far, and 160 more homers, AND won eight gold gloves. Very few writers talk about Player B as a Hall of Fame candidate, yet Bill James talked about him as one of the best outfielders NOT under serious consideration.

What do you think?

Player B is former Sox right fielder Dwight Evans. Not that anybody's giving me a vote, but I like the overall excellence of Evans, a superb defensive player over the more limited but speedy Damon.

What Have You Done for Me Lately?

2011-06-16T22:25:00.000-04:00

In addition to strong starting pitching, successful teams inevitably have a competent closer at the back end. Jonathan Papelbon struggled (IIRC) to a 3.80 ERA last year and had eight blown saves.

Papelbon has made no secret about his intentions, in the Assante Samuel mode of "get paid". Yet, what has the Sox closer been doing lately?

Coming into tonight, in his last ten appearances, he has worked 9.1 innings, and allowed 12 hits, 3 walks, 8 earned runs, and had 14 strikeouts, with 4 saves and a win.

Tonight he allowed a pair of hits to start the ninth, and has come back by mixing his pitches...it's a 3-2 count with two on and Damon on deck...

Strike three and the Red Sox win. Ugly, but a win nonetheless in the series rubber game.

The Crying Game

2011-06-14T20:58:00.000-04:00

Tim Wakefield has been with the Red Sox for what seems like a lifetime. He's the little girls with the curl, when he is good, he is very good...but...

Conversely, Andrew Miller lives at the other end of a baseball lifetime. Miller is that tall, lefthanded power pitcher out of Robert Redford's "The Natural", only Miller has struggled to find that elusive command and control that makes electric arms into Cy Young candidates. Miller has a clause that allows him essentially to become a free agent if he isn't on the major league roster by TOMORROW.

This folks, is a no-brainer. Miller has been lights out recently in the minors, harnessing that 97 mph heat and terrorizing International League hitters. Tonight in 5 1/3 innings, he allowed one run, one walk, and fanned ten.

Including tonight, in his last four starts, he has pitched 25 1/3 innings, yielded 17 hits, 5 earned runs, 3 walks and fanned 26.

There was talk that he should be a "nice guy" and wait a few weeks or a month until the Red Sox "need" him. That's not how it works for an ambitious, talented guy, who throws high nineties heat from the left side. If he got hurt tomorrow, would the Red Sox take care of him for life, when he might have a multi-million dollar payday somewhere else?

It's Miller time, and the Sox will find him a spot or they deserve to lose him.

Thoughts on a Strange Season

2011-06-12T22:12:00.000-04:00

Sometimes the bloom is off the rose, or is it? Have the Red Sox simply become Yankees Light, outspending teams to win? If we examine the 'everyday' lineup, the Red Sox do have "developmental" players.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia may not be a Sox farmhand, but he's not a 'purchased' hire. After Ortiz, Gonzalez, Youkilis, and Ellsbury, Salty has the FIFTH highest OPS among "starter".
Gonzalez. They had to lay out big bucks, but the FARM brought the player, with Anthony Rizzo, Casey Kelley, and Rey Fuentes all legitimate prospects.
Pedroia. Home grown. Problem is the 'under (sized) boy' is showing tread wear.
Lowrie/Iglesias. Out of the system...although Iglesias out of the country.
Youkilis. System product.
J.D. Drew. Mercenary. Didn't work out exactly as planned.
Ellsbury. May not make the All-Star team but has a legit claim at this point.
CC (Crawford). Horrendous start, another mercenary, call it what it is.

After a start of biblical catastrophe, the Sox have recovered beyond our wildest dreams. 39-26, with 37-16 post misery. That's almost .700 baseball, which is just ridiculous in these times.

After the Big Three (Lester, Beckett, Buchholz) with 24 quality starts, the drop off is still pretty astounding, though with Lackey at three.

As for Unsung Hero candidates, the leaders in the clubhouse are Matt Albers, Alfredo Aceves, and Tim Wakefield. But the 10th player award is Ellsbury's to lose.

The Long and the Short of It

2011-06-11T15:53:00.000-04:00

Before the season, most fans would have "known" that catching would be the Achilles Heel for the Red Sox. The team opened with the aging Jason Varitek, and the unproven Jarod Saltalamacchia, the latter long a Sox target for potential.

And the season didn't start well for the pair, with both flirting with the Mendoza Line and neither reminding anyone of Johnny Bench behind the plate.

Where are we now?

...........................GP AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS

Varitek                31 94 13 22 4 0 3 13 11 28 0 0 .234 .321 .372 .693
                           GP AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS

Saltalamacchia      41 131 17 31 7 1 5 18 9 34 0 0 .237 .296 .420 .716

We can distill it down to 30 runs scored, 8 homers and 31 RBI in a combined 66 games.

The combination of Russell Martin (24 runs, 9 homers, 27 RBI) and Francisco Cervelli (6 runs, 1 HR, 10RBI) have combined for 30 runs, 10 homers, 37 RBI.

That's not much of a difference, particularly when adjusted for cost, with the Sox catchers paid 2.75 million dollars and the Yankees (not counting DH Jorge Posada) 4.445 million dollars.

Call it a wash.

Who Deserves an All-Star Berth?

2011-06-06T22:18:00.000-04:00

With the season almost forty percent over, which local players and AL players deserve election/selection to the All-Star team?

Recently, we read that SIX New York Yankees led in All-star voting. Well, that's why they call it VOTING, although perhaps ORDAINING would fit. Of course, there is also team distribution to consider...which I'm factoring in.

Catcher: Alex Avila (DET), Russell Martin (NY)
First base: Miguel Cabrera (ANA), Adrian Gonzalez (BOS), Mark Teixeira
Second base: Howie Kendrick, Robinson Cano (vote leader: Cano)
Shortstop: Jhonny Peralta, Asdrubel Cabrera CLE (vote leader: Derek Jeter)
Third base: Kevin Youkilis, A-Rod (A-Rod leads)
Outfield: Jose Bautista (TOR), Matt Joyce (TB), Curtis Granderson, Carlos Quentin (CHI), Mitch Moreland (TEX), Jeff Francoeur (KC)

DH: David Ortiz

BAL Zach Britton
SEA Michael Pineda
OAK Gio Gonzalez
MIN Nick Blackburn
P Josh Beckett
P Mariano Rivera
P Jered Weaver
P Dan Haren
P Jose Valverde
P Kyle Farnsworth
P CC Sabathia

On the bubble would be Jon Lester and Jacoby Ellsbury, both suffering from team distribution requirements. It certainly looks as though an All-Yankee infield is a real possibility, although neither Jeter nor A-Rod are especially deserving. Jonathan Papelbon has pitched better this year, despite a high ERA, although I don't consider him deserving at this point, all things considered.

As for the MVP and Cy Young Award "leaders" at this point, I'd vote for Jose Bautista and Jered Weaver.

First, at Last

2011-05-27T22:08:00.000-04:00

Fifty-one games into the season, the Red Sox have arrived, at least temporarily at the top of the AL East with an 18-7 May. Not that anyone is counting out the Yankees, who lead the AL in runs scored with 250 in 48 games.

In the past three games, the Sox have pounded opposing pitchers to the tunes of a .372 average with 34 runs. But the pitching has been as much of a story, with quality starts from Jon Lester, Alfredo Aceves, and Tim Wakefield. The Sox have moved into second in runs scored behind their outburst on the road.

It would be silly to claim that Jacoby Ellsbury is the best centerfielder in the AL, but not unreasonable to note that he's the second best behind Curtis Granderson, who should be the consensus All-Star centerfielder.

Is it too soon to wonder about Red Sox representatives to the All-Star game? You'd have to say that Adrian Gonzalez is a lock, but statistically, see the following:

David Ortiz has been having an excellent season, with fewer RBI, since A-Gon is clearing the bases before him. And Kevin Youkilis, after a slow start has assumed his customary status among the top ten in OPS and has been driving in runs consistently.

No salty dog here.

Jarod Saltalamacchia has enjoyed a productive May with an OPS of almost .900. Of course, we don't expect him to be a .900 OPS player, but he certainly is showing while the Sox brain trust pursued him like a dog on a bone for years.

Wondering

2011-05-20T21:29:00.000-04:00

Watching the Red Sox amidst the mercurial season, I have a lot of questions.

Has David Ortiz lost a LOT of weight? He looks a lot thinner to me?
Is Lester just in a funk? He doesn't seem to have much command of his complementary pitches, especially the once-devastating cutter.
Carl Crawford takes a lot of heat, but he's won games with his legs and his bat, although his numbers aren't good. It's about productivity in the end.
Can the Papelbon resurgence be maintained? Getting command of his splitter would be huge.
How many BAD contracts will MLB be prepared to take?
Can a guy like Derek Jeter play his way out of a first ballot Hall of Fame vote if he has three bad seasons, or does an icon get a free pass no matter?
How does a mediocre player like Jose Bautista become Ted Williams, with a ridiculous OBP over .500 and SLG over .800?
I was just going to say Saltalamacchia has been going pretty good. Yard!
Marco Scutaro, we barely knew ya.
Is the Tribe for real, or is it just scenes from "Major League"?
Does any rivalry come close to the Cardinals-Reds now?
Is the Matsuzaka (elbow)-Okajima (ineffectiveness) era over?
Who would you compare Adrian Gonzalez to offensively? I don't remember anyone who hits as much to the opposite field. Roberto Clemente?
Who would have thought? Matt Albers.
The "fog game" the other night reminded me of Oil Can Boyd in Cleveland. "They shouldn't build a ballpark next to the ocean."
Last night we had the 7-2 forceout. Don't expect to see that for awhile. Like for-ever.
It's good to see Jerry Remy in the booth, but I thought Zaun had a ton of potential.

Oversimplification

2011-05-08T21:45:00.000-04:00

Everyone's an expert on the Red Sox. We all think we know as much as Terry Francona and Theo Epstein, and we have our eyes to prove it. If a guy is struggling, then we know his production going forward.

After about twenty percent of the season, what do we know? Do we know that Dustin Pedroia will hit .240 or that Carl Crawford .225, and Jason Varitek .150?

In my column about managed expectations I wrote:
Statistical randomness. This can work in either direction for the Red Sox and for their opposition. For example, Mark Belanger was a career .228 hitter, who hit .287 in 1969. Dwight Evans, a .272 career hitter, hit .242 or less three times during his career. Guys have bad years. Even Teddy Ballgame hit .254 in 1959, admittedly at age 40 with 331 at bats. Also, outcomes in close games can also make a huge difference.

The sample size of the season is still limited, but the Red Sox statistically have looked much more like a middle of the road team than an excellent one. That doesn't mean things can't change, and indeed after a 2-10 start, the Sox are now 14-8.

The positives have been improved pitching, and unexpected good work from Matt Albers. Within the everyday lineup, Kevin Youkilis and Carl Crawford have started a resurgence, Jacoby Ellsbury has a seventeen game hitting streak, and A-Gone has three homers in his last six games. Conversely, Jason Varitek looks more like Dean Chance at the plate than a major league hitter, J.D. Drew continues to have a lot of tough at bats, and Dustin Pedroia has scuffled mightily.

None of this is rocket science. The Sox could go on a ten game winning streak or a losing streak of biblical proportions. It doesn't take Jeanne Dixon to know that either. The bottom line is that the team hasn't reached any degree of consistency, having beaten some top pitchers like Felix Hernandez, Jered Weaver, and Dan Haren, yet struggled against lesser luminaries. I expect the Sox to do better against some of these young pitchers whom they haven't seen before. But I do wonder if a slow start will end up compromising their division expectations. Such is the curse of unmanaged expectations.

Unintended Consequences of the Blue Plague

2011-04-23T17:26:00.000-04:00

While the appealing, simple answer is a catching problem, that's a gross oversimplification. Criticizing officials usually comes off as petty and prejudicial, but is anybody watching?

Missed strikes have massive, often imponderable consequences. Often an error or a defensive miscue (such as the Angels' misplays by both Hunter and Bourjos last night, can trigger not only a rally, but higher pitch counts and longer innings. Last night Jon Lester (not Saltalamacchia) got repeatedly 'squeezed' by Larry Vanover. My sense was that Lester wasn't getting the low strike. As a result, Lester had a much higher pitch count early, which taxes the bullpen, and triggers a cascade of consequences.

Over the longer haul, the wear and tear on both the starters and the bullpen has meaning. The biggest meaning is more frequent appearances for the perceived 'reliable' relievers.

Here's the Pitch fx plot. You can see the number of green boxes (called balls) in the bottom of the zone. Pitch fx argues that Vanover had a very tight zone low, but an impact on Lester's "best" pitches.

Game After Game

2011-04-17T17:57:00.000-04:00

The Red Sox win game after game, well, maybe something like that. Does your food taste better today, and maybe the dog can come out of hiding?

Earl Weaver said it best, "you're never as good as you look when you win or as bad as you look when you lose." And the light at the end of the tunnel doesn't appear to be a speeding locomotive.

What are Sox fans learning right now?

Wally Pipp Scutaro is staring at the rampaging Jed Lowrie, a.k.a. JLow per the Dirt Dogs. Terry Francona may have infinite loyalty to veterans, but sometimes a man has to do what a man has to do.
Sox fans are gnashing their teeth at some Saltalamacchisms (like the botched double steal today), but Jason Varitek has some flies on him. (try 0.077/.143/.077/.220).
Beckett and Lester and pray for bad weather?
After seeing some other Sox bullpen pieces, why does Papelbon sing, "How do you like me now?"
Pedroia may not have had a hit today, but might have saved a run on the aforementioned double steal.
Is Curt Young the real deal or stinkeroo?
John Farrell, double agent?
Sox probably not regretting holding on to Cameron AND McDonald after seeing so many lefties.
Has anybody ever had a bigger disparity between average and on base percentage than Kevin Youkilis?
Let Daisuke be Daisuke. Forget about any conversion at this point.
Carl Crawford will be okay. Write that on the chalkboard 100 times.

Sox Don't Know Jack

2011-04-15T22:17:00.000-04:00

The Toronto Blue Jays came into town, with the curse of John (Jack?) Farrell. It was Jackie Robinson Appreciation Day, or a reasonable facsimile.

The Sox couldn't take advantage of a three-run jack (home run) taken away on replay, despite a pair of jacks of their own, a solo shot by the soul of the team, Dustin Pedroia and a two-run blast by Kevin Youkilis.

Quicker than you could say "Jack Robinson", the Jays rallied against Clay Buchholz, struggling with his command, and they hijacked the game against Bobby Jenks, while the home plate umpire couldn't find the strike zone with a Lojack, guide dog, or a white cane. Frankly, Kerwin Dantley looked like he was challenging Pitch-Fx low accuracy records.

Maybe it's the curse of Curt Young or did Matt Young show up instead?

Know Your Role?

2011-04-12T21:31:00.000-04:00

I'll preface my remarks by saying that I was a very MEDIOCRE Division I baseball pitcher (think Moonlight Graham) and pitched for five years in the Intercity League. That doesn't make me an expert on pitching, but considering that I occasionally got people out with pretty MEDIOCRE stuff...

The old saying goes that hitting is about timing and pitching about disrupting timing. The old Ray Miller adage about working fast, throwing strikes, and changing speeds won't ever go out of style. Blaming the catcher (Saltalamacchia) for Daisuke throwing middle-middle is just...crazy. The Red Sox have tried to remake Matsuzaka, and I'd just let him pitch how he pitches and live with that. GOK that the current situation is untenable.

Let's face it, last night was a disgrace. I don't know how long you go with ineffectiveness. My guess is that with a terrible record, it won't be long before Aceves gets moved into the rotation. Although Tim Wakefield hasn't been great, at least he gives you innings.

If you don't like how the catcher calls the game, then you take it out of his hands and move it to the pitching coach.

Everyone on the Sox is pressing currently, and few players are playing to their potential, even with the small sample size. You don't have to point to Saltalamacchia to find ineffectiveness, as the team has a host of players struggling.

It's not just the Sox. Derek Jeter is .206/.300/.235/.535. I don't hear EVERYONE saying that he's done...just overpaid.

You Can't Win 'Em All

2011-04-09T21:42:00.000-04:00

The Yankees handed the Red Sox a surprising defeat today, ending the powerful Red Sox one game winning streak.

The Yankees lucked out with four home runs, none actually leaving the Bay State, while the Sox banged out ten hits, denying Ivan Nova his second win of the year.

Tim Wakefield tossed a pair of scoreless innings and the speedy outfield combination of Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford now have a combined average of .308.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia threw out Derek Jeter stealing, although the future Hall of Fame shortstop raised his average to .233.

The Yankees no doubt feel fortunate to have evened the season's series.

Six Bagger

2011-04-07T22:19:00.000-04:00

The Red Sox aren't unique concerning bad starts. Plenty of teams have had abysmal starts but few have had as disappointing a start as the Boston Red Sox version 2011.1.

Why? I'll start with the obvious and speculate about the less so.

1) In every sport, you've got to play well to win. The Red Sox played terrible baseball in Texas, and didn't look much better in Cleveland. Whether you want to emphasize balance, run production, or run prevention there hasn't been much of any.

2) Starting pitching. Up until today, the Sox hadn't generated a single quality start. Quality starts (statistically) correlate with winning about two-thirds of the time, and are a meaningful statistic.

3) Anemic offense. After six games, the Sox have scored sixteen runs. That's not much of a sample size, but insufficient to win in any league. The old John McKay line applies, when asked about the execution of his team he replied, "I'm in favor of it."

4) Pressure. Are players starting to press individually and collectively because of a poor start? You have to wonder if the most important guy in the locker room is the sports psychologist, because the mental toughness factor hasn't shown positive thus far.

5. Preparation. Spring Training, frankly, felt like a joke. We heard how it doesn't matter, that when the bright lights come on and the big stage (i.e. major league ballparks) arrived, players would just turn it on. Don't say that you didn't hear it; everyone heard it. Now the Sox are in shell shock, and we haven't stopped watching, but they haven't started playing.

Sure, it's a marathon, not a sprint. But you have to leave the starting line.

Short and Not So Sweet

2011-04-03T11:26:00.000-04:00

What's wrong?

The Sox played two games poorly, with bad pitch execution. The best description I've ever heard was by an old-timer, former White Sox and Red Sox pitcher Gary Peters, "wild IN the zone". You throw stuff in hitters' sweet spot and they make you pay. This ain't rocket science.

Game On

2011-04-02T21:39:00.001-04:00

With the NCAA Men's Final Four and the Sox on, it's work to stay on top. But such are the travails of the sports fan.

David Ortiz eclipses Edgar Martinez as the all-time DH RBI leader, which is quite an accomplishment.

John Lackey hasn't throw the ball badly, but the Rangers have a lot of guys who can hit, from Andrus, Beltre, Hamilton, Kinsler, Cruz, and Young. Texas definitely has the capacity to make pitchers pay for mistakes. But let's not forget the likelihood that the spotlight will shine on Jarod Saltalamacchia, the signal-caller, not the hurler for the calls (is he getting them from Curt Young?).

Following up from an earlier theme, I don't want to overemphasize an inadequate sample size upon which to make judgments. For example, with a pair of homers in two games, David Ortiz is making his argument. Ergo, expect the fan base to start the clamor to 'lock him up'.

Conversely, Adrian Gonzalez looks pretty comfortable at the plate so far, with an 'easy swing' that doesn't look forced.

The Sox do seem a bit chirpy at the umpiring so far, but maybe that's an overcall.

Jacoby Ellsbury made a diving try in centerfield and got up none the worse for wear, we hope. As a Scott Boras client, he'll not doubt soon be the Ellsbury Dough Boy.

On the other hand, Don and Jerry seem pretty restrained in their (lack of) hyperbole with respect to the 2011 edition. You have to win the games on the field, and the projections don't mean a lot relative to production.

Nolan Ryan looks OLD, and he's not that old. Ryan's had some health issues in the past, and maybe running a big league club is more stressful than it looks.

(No) Hell to Pay

2011-04-02T11:52:00.000-04:00

Stupid is as stupid does. The keyboard gladiators want to crucify and judge after one game into the season. Talk about snap judgments.

Yes, Jon Lester got a rare bite from the gopher, and Daniel Bard's birthright to the closer spot got vacated yesterday. But it's ONLY ONE GAME. Carl Crawford didn't solve the southpaws yesterday, and he couldn't jump twenty foot walls in a single bound.

We've got plenty to be optimistic about. First, Jacoby Ellsbury didn't look even remotely look as though he were made of glass. Second, the lineup foreshadowed the maddening pitch-consuming monster they're likely to become, with C.J. Wilson working hard to survive. Third, Adrian Gonzalez looked very comfortable at the dish, and fourth, David Ortiz drove a lefthanded cookie into the bleachers to tie the game late. Fifth, the disastrous relief appearance didn't belong to Jonathan Papelbon, whose ego will get stress-tested more than Irish banks.

They say you win sixty, you lose sixty, and what you do in the other forty determines who you are. With this lineup and staff, it should be you win seventy, you lose thirty, and what you do in the other forty counts.

Managing Expectations

2011-03-30T21:46:00.000-04:00

Alright, I'm getting interested, with the season virtually upon us.

There'll be no "managing expectations", as the media is trying to reload the monkey on the Sox' back, making them the consensus favorite to win the World Series, if not the intergalactic championship should baseball-loving aliens arrive in 2011.

Name some reasons why the Sox could underachieve, and what the likelihood of that is.

Injury. Who thought that the Sox would lose critical parts of the team (V-Mart, Pedroia, Youkilis, Ellsbury) for substantial parts of the season. Sure the Red Sox are viewed as innovators and leaders in sports medicine, but that doesn't prevent fluke injuries...or injuries to key players.
Statistical randomness. This can work in either direction for the Red Sox and for their opposition. For example, Mark Belanger was a career .228 hitter, who hit .287 in 1969. Dwight Evans, a .272 career hitter, hit .242 or less three times during his career. Guys have bad years. Even Teddy Ballgame hit .254 in 1959, admittedly at age 40 with 331 at bats. Also, outcomes in close games can also make a huge difference.
The "Tigers Effect". IIRC, in 1984, the Detroit Tigers won 35 of their first 40 games, ran away and hid from the field.
Breakdowns from key players. Last year Jonathan Papelbon had his ups and downs. Will the real Pap please stand up? The trend isn't good, with rising WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) and falling strikeout to walk ratio (9.63 in 2008, 3.17 in 2009, and 2.71 in 2010). Red Sox data has shown that K/BB ratio predicts ERA better than prior ERA itself.
Chemistry breakdown. Certainly rumors abound about a pitcher sent out of town for ECA (extracurricular activities) and a position player who crossed certain lines never violated.

Despite the Sox hype about winning more than a hundred games, I don't expect that to happen with a much improved AL East including the ever potent Yankees and the underrated Rays.

Do I have any "surprises" for the Sox this year?

I think that the biggest surprise will be that Daisuke Matsuzaka will be better than the 'consensus'. Of course, I don't think that consensus view is much above .500.
I think that the right-handed duo of Mike Cameron and Darnell McDonald will prove to be a lot more productive than is generally perceived. With the Sox so 'left-handed', getting these guys in the lineup (e.g. RF and DH) may be the smartest move that Francona can make.
Jed Lowrie will get a lot more at bats than currently expected. Marco Scutaro is a 'nice' player, but Lowrie has a higher ceiling. Will Scutaro's injury recur and will the manager just rotate in Lowrie to allow for optimal rest and recovery.
Clay Buchholz will end up being the 'best' Sox starter. Simply, Buchholz has hellacious stuff, with two good fastballs, and two excellent complementary pitches, including a dynamite changeup. What made him so effective last year was the evolution of his cutter, which gave him another weapon against lefthanded batters. I saw him outduel Greinke in a 1-0 Fenway classic last year, and he was dynamite.

Play ball.

Okay, Okay Already

2011-03-26T21:54:00.000-04:00

I can't get overly worked up about Spring Training...especially compared with: 1) my youth basketball coaching, 2) March Madness, and 3) a vacation in the Bahamas. It's not that I don't care about Drew Sutton or Nate Spears, but really. Still, there's a time to spout off.

Buck Showalter. First, Showalter has been a pretty effective manager over the years, with a pair of AL Manager of the Year awards under his belt. Showalter has a rep as a "tough guy", in the cycle of 'player's manager' and authoritarian, also known as 'task-oriented' versus "relationship-oriented". He felt it necessary to diss Derek Jeter (so what?) and Theo Epstein, hinting that being a GM with tons of money is easier than being a GM of a financially challenged franchise. Hey Buck, with the Yankees, your managerial record was .539, and your career managerial record is .517. Did you turn down expensive players when you managed the Bombers?

Daisuke Matsuzaka. No matter what we might think of Matsuzaka as a pitcher regarding consistency, his 1 million dollar donation to Japanese relief says a lot about Matsuzaka the man. Sox fans ought to think about sending something their way as well...

Josh Beckett. Beckett came in good shape and hasn't gotten very good results so far. As I mentioned earlier I'm not that excited about Spring Training. So I'll give Beckett the benefit of the doubt.

Jonathan Papelbon. See Beckett.

LOOGY. Lefty one-out guy. Looks like Dennys Reyes has made almost 9 million dollars playing professional baseball, which is way more than I'll make as a career physician. I guess the argument Babe Ruth made when comparing his salary to the President's, "what kind of year did he have?"

Tim Wakefield. This is a tough call, the sentimental favorite, good soldier, who has the capacity to contribute occasionally, but who is slowed by age and some health issues. Wakefield has also been a great communit guy. Some pitchers, to borrow a Warren Buffett phrase about Mickey Mouse, are like oil wells, where you get to pump the oil out, and the next day, it's back in the well ready to be pumped out again. At this point, you pump a lot, and most of the time, there's not so much oil...as in 'dry well'. Maybe it's the Mo Vaughn "it's not about the money" thing. Is Wakefield better than Okajima at this point, or Albers, or Aceves? Somehow, it just feels like Wakefield's time has passed. Just saying.

Net worth. So the Red Sox are worth 900 Million dollars now, or at least that's what I heard somewhere. And all this time, I was thinking that John Henry was worrying about where his next meal was coming from. Really, I mean, who's watching the Polk County Championship deciding game tonight, besides me? Don and Jerry have totally degenerated into "Inane Banter", while Dan Wheeler gets beaten up more than a rented mule.

Scutaro versus Lowrie. "It's not about the money." Says who?

Salty Peppering. Well, once again there's that "it's only Spring Training" thingy. Saltalamacchia has thrown the ball no worse than recent incumbents, and looks like he's got a reasonable stick. Maybe the curse of unlimited potential won't devalue him after all.

Favorite player. I can't help myself from finding Darnell McDonald the guy I root hard for. And with the Sox expecting to see a heavy diet of LHP, Mac may get more at bats than you think.

All that being said, the Notre Dame women looked pretty strong today as they manhandled Oklahoma. And how many coaches go from High School to coaching a powerhouse D1 school? That's what the OU coach Sherri Coale did. March Madness, women's division.

Rank Has Its Privileges

2011-02-10T19:50:00.000-05:00

The Globe asks you to rank the Red Sox (whatever that means to you)...

Here goes...

Heaven Can Wait

2011-01-29T15:07:00.000-05:00

Heaven can wait, but Spring Training?

With the Celtics on the left coast, the Bruins on break, and the Patriots watching the Super Bowl, we've got awhile to go before waking. But what are the issues, the concerns, yea the heartbreak moments that Sox fans await?

1) Josh Beckett. Last season Beckett was more Glenn than Josh, with a stratospheric E.R.A. and more time on the DL than on the mound. If the Sox REALLY are championship driven, does anyone think that Beckett isn't a key?

2) Backstops. I'm not worried about Saltalamacchia being Mackey Sasser, Steve Sax, Chuck Knoblauch, or the originator, Steve Blass. I'm also conflicted on the "personal catcher" thing. I had a catcher call for a pitchout once on a three-two pitch. Really. At Harvard. Maybe that was his commentary on my abilities...but it was so long ago, that all I can remember is shaking him off.

3) Contract year. Will the real David Ortiz please stand up? But I do think J.D. Drew will play well in his Red Sox swan song...holding place for Ryan Kalish. Call me old-fashioned, but I actually like an outfielder who can run AND throw...unlike so many the Sox have had over the past few years. Maybe they're still remembering Jose Tartabull throwing out Ken Berry in 1967.

4) Injury bug. Everything the Sox and Dustin Pedroia are saying sounds good. And I've heard from my sources that Youkilis is swinging the bat well. Still, you don't know until you know, do you?

5) Competition. I'm not for naming Marco Scutaro ANYTHING. Scutaro had a WAR (wins above replacement value) of 2.1 in 2010, compared to first ballot Hall of Famer Derek Jeter's astronomical 2.5. Of course, Jed Lowrie in less than half a season had 1.8. By the way, 5 is all-star level.

Terry, Terry, Terry. Do the right thing, baby. The job is a competition, and if Lowrie is healthy (Scutaro, too), then he might just beat him out.

6) Pap smear. Now I'm not saying that Jonathan Papelbon (eight blown saves, 3.80) had a lost year last year. His WAR rating is sliding like magma from Vesuvius in 29 AD. We'll need another Pliny the Younger to give Pap's fall proper description.

7) Ell's kitchen. Jacoby Ellsbury pulled off a bigger heist than the Brink's Robbery, taking the Red Sox for 2.4 million. Okay, the Sox don't like the adversarial process of having to put down their stars.

8) LOOGY. Lefty One Out Guy. Star of the day, who will it be, your vote may hold the key... does anybody think Oki-Dokey is still the one? Well, that's a competition among so many, from Rich Hill, to Felix (The Cat) Doubront, to Andrew Miller, to Jesse Orosco (just kidding about Orosco). Is Frank Tanana still available?

Doldrums

2011-01-14T22:39:00.000-05:00

With still a month to go until spring training, what's interesting these days?

The Yankees response to the Sox off-season was to unload their coffers to Rafael Soriano.

Here's the skinny on Soriano's last two years against Papelbon's. They've both pitched about the same number of innings, with similar strikeout totals, and save totals. Of course, if you look at the WHIP numbers, Soriano has a pretty decided edge. Papelbon's been an intriguing personality and mostly effective closer up until last season. What I can't understand is how a guy who views himself as one of the best relievers in the game has so limited development of secondary pitches. Is that the most professional development available?

I hope that Papelbon has an Eckersley-like Cy Young/MVP 1992 season, but the career trajectory for Papelbon doesn't inspire confidence in that outcome.

The most intriguing story for the Sox isn't the catching, but who plays shortstop. Marco Scutaro had a solid year last season, with his statistics NOT so different from Derek Jeter (really). But is a health Jed Lowrie a better overall player?

I can't stand Scott Boras, but he delivered the goods for his clients. He got a Mendoza line (.196/.325/.407/.732) power hitter (Carlos Pena) 10M, got Beltre 80M, and Soriano 35M. If the AMA got Boras as representation, then maybe I'd join (just kidding).

If the bullpen shapes up with Papelbon, Bard, Jenks, Wheeler, Doubront, Wakefield, Okajima...it could be worse.

The big three of Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, and Vlad Guerrero are out there? Right? What if they all signed with Baltimore? Maybe I'll just grab a pig and take a flight...

And that doesn't count Johnny Damon and Russell Branyan (.215/.319/.483/.802). Where's Branyan's Carlos Pena money?

Albert Pujols' money? What is that?

Who is Pujols? (from www.baseball-reference.com). Here are his 'comps'.

The most important question mark on the team for 2011? For me, it has to be Josh Beckett. We all know he's better than 6 wins, an ERA of 5.78, and 20 homers allowed in 127 innings. But is he the 'Beckett of old' or an "old, injured Beckett"?

A Dollar Doesn't Go So Far

2010-12-12T11:50:00.000-05:00

You're complaining about Carl Crawford?

How about this for trivia...who am I?

I pitched for the Red Sox. I have never won 20 games, but 5 of the past 6 years, I have won at least 14 games. I have been an all-star once. I have never won a post-season game. I have never been in the top 10 in the Cy Young Award voting. I will earn 18 MILLION dollars in 2013. Who am I?

What Have You Done for Me Lately?

2010-12-11T20:19:00.000-05:00

What a difference a week makes. The Sox moved up the toteboard among the Boston sports scene, maybe even pushing the Patriots aside as they arrived in the Windy City.

Some say Crawford isn't 'worth the money'. Anybody been watching the Rays the past few years. Crawford seemed to have 20 stolen bases a year against the Red Sox. A Yankee fan told me today, that Crawford gets "wasted" playing left field in Boston. Last time I checked, the Sox also play eighty-one games not in "America's Most Beloved Ballpark".

If the Yankees elect to go with their non-defensive catcher, Miguel Montero, Ellsbury, Crawford, Pedroia, and maybe others can run at will. We won't be complaining about the Yankees' short porch, when the Sox have Ellsbury, Crawford, Ortiz, Gonzalez, Drew, Lowrie, and Saltalamacchia in the lineup.

What Sox fans won't be saying now:

Why are they spending so much money on soccer?
Why did ticket prices rise?
Why won't they spend money on free agents?
Why don't the Sox have a more athletic team?
Why do concessions cost so much?
Why should I watch the Sox on TV?
What is Theo doing?

Nothing guarantees the Sox anything, but you catch a lot more fish with your hook in the water. Right?

We can only hope that the Texarkana connection gets a certain lefthander to the Rangers.

Play (Hard) Ball

2010-12-09T23:06:00.000-05:00

This week the Red Sox sent a message to their rivals in New York, we can play your game.

The addition of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford to the lineup brings a new dimension to the Red Sox lineup, a combination of both speed and power, as well as two Gold Glove caliber defenders. One might make the argument that the Sox are too "left-handed" with the right-handedness coming from:

1) Kevin Youkilis
2) Dustin Pedroia
3) Switch-hitting catchers
4) Mike Cameron in platoon
5) Jed Lowrie/Marco Scutaro at shortstop

Obtaining Russell Martin (via free agency) could take David Ortiz out of the lineup against some lefthanders, creating a lineup against some LHP of:

2B - Pedroia
LF - Crawford
3B - Youkilis
1B - Gonzalez
DH - Martin
RF - Cameron
C - Varitek
SS - Lowrie
CF - Ellsbury

Obviously, there remains a possibility of additional trades.

Play ball.

Yo, Adrian!

2010-12-04T10:06:00.000-05:00

We'll see how it turns out, but the Red Sox and Padres apparently have a deal for Adrian Gonzalez.

I'd guess that the Padres get:

Casey Kelly
Anthony Rizzo
Ryan Kalish
Luis Exposito

But I certainly don't know. I like Kalish better than Jacoby Ellsbury, because I like outfielders who can throw, but that's just me.

The Brandon Duckworth Era is Here

2010-12-02T21:14:00.000-05:00

There is news!

Rumor has it that the Red Sox have signed Brandon Duckworth (Ode to Joy plays). What? Welcome to the Brandon Duckworth era...

Uber-site MLBTraderumors.com reports that Adrian Beltre would PREFER to return to the Red Sox. Let's not confuse preference with dollar signs. This would obviously invalidate my Paul Konerko (White Sox) sneaking in the back door theory.

I see the lack of right-handed power depth as the number one issue to be resolved by the Sox this offseason, closely followed by the bullpen.

The Red Sox resigned Jason Varitek today, presumably as some combination of the Beckett-Lackey binky, and for platoon against left-handing pitching. Could the Red Sox ability to throw out runners stealing actually go down? Maybe signing Carl Crawford could help rectify that?

Maybe Sox fans will get an early Christmas present, but I'm not holding my breath.

Hot Stove Starting to Warm

2010-11-28T19:54:00.001-05:00

The hot stove has started to warm up, with Javier Vasquez (Marlins) and Jon Garland (Dodgers) signing, and more rumors coming along.

The "definitive rumor" site is MLB Trade Rumors.

Currently, the Red Sox "prospective" lineup looks something like this.

Lineup (9)
OF - Jacoby Ellsbury
2B - Dustin Pedroia
DH - David Ortiz
1B - Kevin Youkilis
OF - J.D. Drew
3B - Jed Lowrie
C - Jarrod Saltalamacchia
OF - Mike Cameron
SS - Marco Scutaro

Bench (5 to be filled) Varitek (free agent), Darnell McDonald, Eric Patterson, Ryan Kalish

Pitchers (11 to be filled)
Rotation: Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Beckett, Matsuzaka
Bullpen: Papelbon, Bard, Atchison, Doubront (2 to be filled)

The immediate issues without much imagination:
1) Very limited right-handed power (options Adrian Beltre, Paul Konerko, Jason Werth)
2) Bullpen inconsistency (options Kerry Wood, Scott Downs, J.J. Putz, Grant Balfour, Arthur Rhodes)
3) Uncertainty at catcher (no immediate solution)
4) Blockbuster trades (have to acquire power hitters)

Currently the fans seem concerned about the Sox "going cheap", and accumulating/over-rating draft choices. Oh to be a fly on the wall in Theo Epstein's office. Free agents (to an extent) wait for the market to be set, so we'll have to wait. Although most of the issue becomes money, there's also geography, and their role. We have to trust that the Sox "brain trust" is spending as much time try to solve the problems as Sox fans collectively spend thinking about them.

We Can Only Hope

2010-11-27T22:05:00.000-05:00

If it's true that Derek Jeter sought a 6 year, 150 million dollar contract from the Yankees, then we should wish him well and encourage his masters to pay through the ~~wazoo~~ nose. Giving Jeter megabucks might only shift the Bronx budget away from productive to less-productive assets. Jeter's argument must go something like, "A-Rod gets 30 million and I'm gonna get 15, bleeping chump change. Who's done more for the franchise? Who's the face of the Yankees?"

Last time I checked, contracts weren't like the Oscars "lifetime achievement awards", but compensation for expected production. Well, we can only hope.

God knows that the Sox shortstop dollar black hole has gone through Lugoland and Renteriaville en route to its current occupant...Theo said, "Marco" and got "Polo" in return.

Scutaro (OPS .721) outperformed Jeter (OPS .710) in 2010, and out-homered the Bronx bummer, 11-10. Last I checked, though, Jeter was in the playoffs for like the 15th time (maybe not) and Scutaro was home resting his shoulder.

Never fear though, the Red Sox chances of returning to post-season play are increasing day-by-day, as Major League Baseball ponders expanding its post-season format, adding another best-of-three series for Wild-card wannabes. Will it be called "Deuces wild" or something clever like "Wallet biopsy"? The winner will come out with either its top two or three pitchers AND bullpen spent, so that facing the expanded playoff winner will really BE an advantage.

Faux news? I asked a Red Sox employee recently whether he had any 'misinformation' that fans might appreciate. I commented that you see a lot less of the "worn cap" look popularized by Trot Nixon, Mike Timlin, and others. He reported that Wade Boggs was never as big a 'chicken diet' adherent as alleged, and that Nomar Garciaparra had a lucky t-shirt that looked holier than Swiss cheese by the end of the season. Sure, I've got more, but what you see there and say there, stays there. So now you now.

To Victor Goes the Spoils

2010-11-26T23:04:00.001-05:00

It's still early in the off-season, and so far the Red Sox signing a minor league free agent hasn't exactly reassured the Nation. Even the knowledge that the Yankees and Derek Jeter are farther apart than the sun and the moon doesn't help much.

Victor Martinez pockets 50M and four years, because the Tigers give him a chance to win a ring. For crissakes, I'd probably fall over if an athlete ever said he made a great decision for his family and took the money. THERE'S NOTHING WRONG WITH THAT. But it's wrong "to seem greedy", but okay to be greedy?

Thus far, the scoreboard shows negative progress at catcher and third base (presuming the imminent departure of Adrian Beltre), and the best news for most fans that J.D. Drew has a contract year to play for. Word has it that David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis are both working out at Fenway, that Dustin Pedroia is on the mend on the left coast.

I'm going to work on the assumption that Jacoby Ellsbury's address is going to be on the west coast next year, meaning that the Red Sox need to find another full-time outfielder to mix and match with the motley combination of Drew, Mike Cameron, Darnell McDonald, and Ryan Kalish.

Of course, the Sox had a glaring weakness in the bullpen, which had Daniel Bard as the most effective member, Jonathan Papelbon as an oft one-pitch closer (that can be cured), and a mystery as to whether the Atchisons, Doubronts, and Okajimas can overachieve to adequacy if not greatness. Other teams like Texas seem to have an endless supply of guys who throw high 90s, while the Sox accumulate draft choices.

"Only fools and children judge jobs part done." There's still plenty of time between now and April for Theo Epstein to retool the lineup and the bullpen. But with the Patriots and Celtics getting the limelight, the Sox can't want to be seen as the lemons on the local sports scene.

Perspectives on Free Agency

2010-11-07T14:56:00.000-05:00

Free agency has started, and the goal is to strengthen your team without suffering "The Winner's Curse". Overpaying for players who had exceptional years or who are likely at the downhill crossroads of their career can put a franchise in 'jail' for years. The Red Sox have suffered the consequences of poor judgments on Edgar Renteria and Julio Lugo, yet benefited from correct reads on Jason Bay (six homers this season for the Mets).

Money always comes onto or off the payroll. After this year's loss of interest in the injured and underachieving Sox, there's a perception that the Sox "must" be a big player to regain media attention and credibility. Does Sox upper management have its collective eyes on the ball, or are they more concerned with diversifying the empire via NASCAR and soccer?

As far as the numero uno free agent on the market, Cliff Lee, don't expect the Red Sox to be chasing him. They've got Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Beckett, and Matsuzaka, as well as numerous prospects. They're far more likely to spend the money on bat, with major holes to fill at catcher, first or third, and a need for an outfield power bat. The other issue is whether Jed Lowrie deserves a shot at the everyday shortstop job, and the implications for Marco Scutaro and Jose Iglesias. Lowrie has filled the Tim Naehring designated injury slot, but hit exceptionally well when healthy.

Sox fans could easily live with bringing Beltre back and Jason Werth in, but the likelihood of signing multiple Boras clients after the Teixeira fiasco seems remote. A trade for Adrian Gonzalez would strip the farm system (e.g. Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, and more) and require something in the 22-25 million dollar a year money range to satisfy his contractual expectations. Obtaining a Paul Konerko (first), while moving Youkilis to third still leaves the need for an outfield bat, and neither Carl Crawford or Werth will come cheap.

What the Sox expect from Mike Cameron remains to be seen, but last year's 8 million dollars went down the drain. The Sox failure to develop power hitters is coming back to bite them, and the fans aren't likely to wait for Rizzo or Ryan Lavarnaway.

Can You Stand It? Just sayin'.

2010-10-30T18:14:00.000-04:00

I haven't written much lately here, because I've been busy with broadcasting a cable sports show, high school football and volleyball, and maintaining my investment/trading blog. But even I can only resist so long.

The Red Sox handled the departure of pitching coach John Farrell with class and dignity. Farrell added a lot to the organization and the Sox had only praise for the new Jays' skipper.

I don't want to boast too much, but I had my prediction of the Giants winning here. Take my word for it. Seeing former Sox Edgar Renteria, Javier Lopez, and Ramon Ramirez having success makes us ask that unwanted question, "how come we can't get guys like that?"

As for the downside, what is local favorite David Ortiz thinking (in this economy) when he talks about not being comfortable in a contract year? Does he think all Sox fans are drinking Four Loko? Presuming the Sox pick up his option, a very reasonable assumption, he'll pocket 12 million dollars. If he could scrape by on a couple of million, then after taxes he could save over five million dollars and be set for life. I guess it's the 'bonfire of the vanities'. Ortiz continues to be productive, whatever his age, in US or Dominican years.

Tim Wakefield receives the prestigious Roberto Clemente community service award. Will that be the crowning achievement of his long Sox career?

Plenty of questions for the Sox in the off season. One has to be, how do you tell players you have no money after you spend over four hundred million to buy an English soccer franchise. No doubt that will mean LISN, the Liverpool Sports Network.

I had the opportunity to meet Sam Kennedy, Sox COO and Executive Vice President. I'm sure he enjoyed being able to announce another ticket increase for a non-playoff team. Maybe the Sox are pounding the table for expanded playoffs. Let's make it the NBA where 16 teams make it. The Sox can achieve post-season competition annually and declare every year a success. Think I have to throw up in my mouth on that one.

Questions? You betcha.

Ginger or Maryann? Papelbon or Bard?
Big splash? Ellsbury, Matsuzaka, and Casey Kelly for Adrian Gonzalez?
Does Ryan Kalish have an equal or better upside potential to Jacoby?
If the Sox aren't serious about V-Mart, then who's it gonna be? Buck, Benji, or Salty?
Will Jason Varitek be back as backup catcher?
Is Marco Scutaro the healing incumbent or will the productive Jed Lowrie get the shot?
Who's in the rebuilt bullpen?
Who's on third? Youkilis after
Beltre's departure?

So, here's a potential lineup?

LF - Kalish

2B - Pedroia

1B - Gonzalez

DH- Ortiz

3B - Youkilis

RF - Drew

C - Buck

CF - Cameron

SS - Lowrie

Just sayin'. Go Giants.

Haven't Got Time for the Pain

2010-09-06T16:46:00.000-04:00

I haven't written much about the Red Sox lately, because frankly I haven't got time for the pain.

A lot of factors go into the success or failure of a baseball season, including "relative" performance to statistical norms, managing, luck, consistency, injuries, and even 'acts of God'. I saw a highlight clip of a ball hitting a bird and deflecting past an outfielder for a walkoff hit. But after yesterday's embarrassing loss to the White Sox, I needed some catharsis.

Perhaps the Red Sox can't change anything about this season, but as for next season, some changes are in order. In no particular ranking:

1) Third base coaching. The best third base coaching occurs when nobody knows the coach's name. We've have Dale "Sveum it ain't so", Wendell "Send 'em in Kim", and Tim "Boo-boo" Bogar. DeMarlo Hale was fantastic but Bogar didn't really cut the mustard. I'm being kind.

2) Bullpen restructuring. Okay, the four walks in a row yesterday sent me over the edge. It was the Sam McDowell, Matt Young, Steve Blass kind of performance that deserves professional help. Papelbon's disgust and lack of empathy after the game deserves a little back room discussion from the manager. Be a good teammate; be a professional. As for Papelbon himself, he had a terrific stretch when he got back to using all his pitches. When he throws nothing but fastballs, it's not working.

3) There's only so much you can do about injuries. It's not bad enough to lose the right side of the infield, catchers for too long, but Marco Scutaro is throwing lollipops to first. How bad is his shoulder, anyway?

4) Statistical variation. Who played "up to expected levels" when adjusted for injury time? Drew, Youkilis, Pedroia, Martinez, and Scutaro all really did what they do. Beltre and Ortiz exceeded expectations, as did Bill Hall. Darnell McDonald excelled as a fourth outfielder. For the minimal time he wasn't sick or injured, Jed Lowrie was decent.

The combined left and centerfield positions were pretty much a disaster of biblical or 'Titanic' proportions.

Obviously, the Sox expected more from Beckett and Lackey, and the bullpen for the second half struggled to put it mildly. The bullpen needs a complete makeover excepting Daniel Bard. Presumably a healthy Beckett and Lackey do better; Lester and Buchholz couldn't do much better.

5) Run prevention. When does that start again?

6) What do they do with Beltre, Ortiz, and V-Mart? With Youkilis out, they became the offensive core. Do we just start all over again? We can't know what the organization is thinking,

7) How do they address the Ellsbury situation? Currently, he's simply damaged goods, and only management knows where his head is at.

8) "Power outage". Is this fair? As tough as it may seem to believe, the Sox are second in runs scored to the Yankees and second in homers to Toronto. Sans Ellsbury, they are last in stolen bases with a mere 47. Somehow, they need to get a power hitter (e.g. Adrian Gonzalez). Casey Kelly, we barely knew ya.

9) The deciders. Is management going to spend the money coming off the payrolls? Lowell's pay is a big lump and what they do with Ortiz and V-Mart is another 20 million dollar decision. Are they done paying for nonproductive shortstops? Can they afford to watch Papelbon ask for Rivera money with declining effectiveness?

10) Papelbon's ERA skyrocket to over 3, along with a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.5, not great for a power closer. I'm not suggesting Daniel Bard has won the job; he's never even auditioned for it. They do have to make a call. At 9.35 million dollars (per ESPN) for Papelbon, that's a big piece of change.

No Mad: Damon...No Way.

2010-08-24T22:26:00.000-04:00

Johnny Damon turned down the Hub for the Motor City. Can't you see it now? The Dan Shaughnessy column comparing Boston and Detroit, yada, yada, yada.

Player A has over 400 at bats this season. Player B has 255 at bats. Player A can't throw the ball better than my 22 year old daughter. Player B is a competent outfielder defensively. Player A has simply moved on from the Red Sox and Player B is trying to establish himself as a permanent professional ballplayer.

Player A doesn't want to be in Boston and Player B appreciates the opportunity. Player A is Johnny Damon and Player B is Darnell McDonald.

Seeing Is Believing

2010-08-23T21:29:00.000-04:00

Have you been paying attention? Tonight Ryan Kalish played center field for the Sox. His box score (3 0 0 0) does show much of an impact, does it?

Early in the game, Kalish fielded a base hit into the gap and gunned the runner out at second, possibly saving a run. Historically, we've had some weak arms in center (Damon, Crisp, Ellsbury), so this is at least a temporary upgrade. Later, with runners on first and second and no out, he executed a sacrifice bunt perfectly, advancing the runners, who then scored on a Scutaro single.

So, with "nothing" in the box score, Kalish made a significant contribution both offensively and defensively. Seeing is believing.

Silver Linings

2010-08-22T19:36:00.000-04:00

I'm not on the bandwagon, analytically anyway. But the 2010 season hasn't been all negative. If the season is a marathon not a sprint, then so we ask whether younger blood might help carry the team forward.

Assessing the "youth" by position (ignoring the established 'younger' veterans in Youkilis (1B-3B) and Pedroia (2B), the Sox have (through the system) established more prospects.

C - Saltalamacchia, Exposito, Lavarnaway, Ibarra (Wagner, Brown blocked?)
1B - Rizzo (young power hitter), Anderson (hitting better lately)
Middle infield- Lowrie, Y. Navarro, Iglesias
3B- Middlebrooks
OF- Kalish, Reddick, Lin (defensively)

SP- established 5 starters, 2 very young (Lester, Buchholz), Doubront
RP - Bard, Bowden (what will they do with Papelbon?)
Top prospects- Kelly, Weiland, Fife, Ranaudo

Power-hitting outfielders, especially right-handed, look to be the system 'deficiency'.

Dear Theo Epstein

2010-08-21T21:39:00.000-04:00

Dear Theo Epstein:

Realistically, the Red Sox aren't buried, but are they dead?

Tampa has 40 games to go, playing over .600 ball. If they continue to 'struggle' and win 20, they finish 94-48. To tie them, the Sox must win 25 of their final 39 to tie. If Tampa even goes 22-18 (96 wins), then the Sox must go 27-12, in other words, play almost .700 ball down the stretch.
Even if the Sox had their full roster, that's not happening.

If the Sox don't beat Toronto the next two games, then Theo Epstein should think the unthinkable, sell 'em off. If you're not going to make a max effort to re-up Beltre (likely 4 by 60) and Martinez (maybe 4 by 10) and pay Papelbon 10 million (a total of 110 million), then maybe the Sox go into selling mode, in order to retool for 2011.

Among Beltre, Martinez, and Papelbon, you should be able to get useful if not premium pieces, as you're not selling off junk, realizing that what you're not trading is quality but not duration, as you don't have a lot of control.

The 2011 rebuild isn't as bad as it seems.

C - Saltalamacchia and wait for your prospects
1B - Adrian Gonzalez for Ellsbury, Casey Kelly, and another piece.
2B - Pedroia is healthy
3B - Youkilis slides to third base.
SS - Scutaro for another year, with prospects in the pipeline
LF - Kalish
CF - Cameron, while you wait
RF - Drew, last year of his contract
Extra - McDonald, earned a ticket back with a raise
Extra - Lowrie, with a chance to compete for the shortstop job
DH - ah, there's the rub...do you extend Ortiz

SP: Lester, Buchholz, Beckett, Lackey, Matsuzaka
RP: Rebuild: Bard, Atchison, Bowden, Doubront, Richardson...

The bullpen reclamation seems to be an annual issue, and the Papelbon question is a huge overhang, both structurally and financially. The trend is negative, although he's still a young guy. They could try to move Matsuzaka to the West coast, but are they going to get value for a guy who could win 15 games a year for a couple of years?

The free agent market is a bit thin, with the prime piece Albert Pujols, who isn't going anywhere. Carl Crawford would be an attractive acquisition, and the Sox should have a lot of money coming off the books (Lowell, Varitek, Wakefield, Beltre, Martinez, Hall). Obviously, if they're willing to part with Casey Kelly, then they'd be able to at least enter the Gonzalez sweeps.

Sox fans will miss the classy veterans Mike Lowell and Tim Wakefield, but realistically need to get younger and more athletic.

Developmentally, the Sox are waiting on Anthony Rizzo (1B) who has apparently moved ahead of Lars Anderson, the Navarro-Iglesias battle for shortstop, and it's hard to expect Anthony Ranaudo to be ready before late 2012 at the earliest. Do the Sox have any power-hitting outfielders coming through the system and what's their alternative?

I've done my own surveys, and Sox fans are ready to accept reality and move on. Can you?

The Glass is Half Full

2010-08-17T18:13:00.000-04:00

How do you classify the 2010 Boston Red Sox campaign to date? Any answer has to be qualified, but how does this differ from any baseball season?

Success and failure in baseball depends on many factors, including the proverbial 'bad bounces', health and injury, as well as over/underproduction by players, coaches, and management.

Management:

Although the franchise has a fiduciary and 'moral' duty to win every year, even Theo Epstein acknowledged 2010 to be a 'bridge' year.

Transactions have to be judged over the long haul. So far, the insertion of numerous fill-ins, ranging from Darnell McDonald, Daniel Nava, Eric Patterson, and most recently Ryan Kalish has overall exceeded expectations. Adrian Beltre has simply been a revelation. Few Red Sox in their wildest dreams could have anticipated the contribution of Bill Hall, and Marco Scutaro has for the most part stabilized the shortstop position. Acquiring Jarrod Saltalamacchia at lottery ticket prices gives the Sox additional flexibility in the off-season.

Conversely, the bullpen has often been fragmented, Mike Cameron can't be awarded a grade other than incomplete, and aside from April, Jeremy Hermida looked like Tarzan and played like Jane. The free agent gem, John Lackey, has pitched inconsistently and in bad luck at times.

We have to remember the front office's patience with promising arms like Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, both of whom would be top of the rotation starters for every team in baseball. Daniel Bard has a trajectory that places him just outside all-star status. Felix Doubront has shown himself to be more a prospect than a suspect. We can only hope that Josh Beckett regains the form and consistency that marked his early career.

Coaching:

How could Terry Francona receive anything except for consideration for AL Manager of the Year? He has worked with an inconsistent lineup, an underachieving bullpen, and simply kept the team either in or at the fringes of competition with two hands tied behind his back.

John Farrell seems next in line to inherit a major league managing job. Numerous Sox pitchers have developed new pitches (e.g. Lester and Buchholz with the cutter) and it's difficult to know how much impact pitching coaches can have on grizzled veterans.

Tim Bogar might be the salt of the earth. I don't know him, but overall the "send 'em in, Tim" approach recalls the Wendell Kim era. DeMarlo Hale excelled at the third base coaching job, and if the season has anything worth saving, maybe he belongs back there.

Over/Under Achievement:

I call this the Mark Belanger category. Belanger played in six ALCS and four World Series, all the while hitting a career .228. Yet in 1969 he hit .287 and he won eight gold gloves. Belanger didn't always hit, but he certainly knew how to help his club win.

Of course, the problem with the over/underachievement and incomplete list is injury. The Sox have had major injuries at every position except short, third, and right field. I have to use the "porn standard", that is, I know it when I see it.

Overachievement
Adrian Beltre
David Ortiz ("Still the One")
Bill Hall
Daniel Nava
Ryan Kalish
Darnell McDonald, a career resurrection
Jason Varitek (didn't expect much coming in)
John Lester
Clay Buchholz
Daniel Bard
Scott Atchison
Felix Doubront

As Expected:
Kevin Youkilis (top 5 offensive player in the AL)
Dustin Pedroia (injury a major factor)
J.D. Drew (average, but not mediocre)
Marco Scutaro
Daisuke Matsuzaka (the enigmatic one)
Dustin Richardson

Underachievement:
Victor Martinez, injury a contribution
Jeremy Hermida
Jacoby Ellsbury, injury his primary 2010 contribution
Mike Cameron
Kevin Cash
Josh Beckett
John Lackey
Tim Wakefield
Jonathan Papelbon
Hideki Okajima
Manny Delcarmen

Incomplete:
Eric Patterson

How much of these 'categories' reflect "randomness' versus 'trend' is questionable. My sense is that any objective categorization of Jonathan Papelbon's career would show 'negative trend', based on blown saves (maybe random), WHIP ratio (nonrandom), and strikeout to walk ratio (nonrandom). I'd be inclined to assign Beckett and Lackey to randomness. Is Adrian Beltre the Seattle underachiever, the Boston overachiever or someone in between? These are the decisions that management has to wrestle with in planning future contracts, acquisitions, trades, and disposition.

The players who have 'helped' themselves most this season are: Beltre, Hall, Kalish, McDonald, Bard, and Doubront. Nobody can label Lester or Buchholz as surprises, because as Yogi Berra would say, "you can see a lot by just watching".

Overall, with 50 odd games left, the Sox still have a chance for the playoffs. All things considered, the glass is half full...if you're drinking the Kool-Aid.

Following Yes...Deserving More Columns...Not So Sure

2010-08-08T21:12:00.000-04:00

"You're never as good as you look when you win...or as bad as you look when you lose." - Earl Weaver

The Red Sox continue to confound and confuse. To their credit, they haven't gone into the tank when they could with major injuries at C (2), 1B, 2B, LF (2), CF, and P(Beckett, Matsuzaka). Conversely, the 'run prevention' strategy hasn't materialized, with continual bad fielding, bad judgement, and inconsistent relief pitching.

Dan Le Batard makes it clear today in the Miami Herald that most journalists simply haven't adequately prepared, and become critical, simply because that's the easy way.

Now for the gratuitous comments:

Sox fans bemoaned the loss of Jacoby Ellsbury. Who's crying now? Getting your timing back mid-season isn't so easy.

Josh Beckett hasn't had the greatest command today...but throwing some more off-speed pitches could help...although maybe he's concerned about the running game. Fuggedaboutit. Not happening.

The biggest loss from here out is...Kevin Youkilis, one of the top five offensive players in the AL (really).

Morrow has a no-hitter today...if Dustin Pedroia's playing second base for Toronto.

J.D. Drew has the capacity to carry a team for a month...if he gets hot. Right now? Not so much.

If the Sox WERE to lose the next couple of games to the Yankees and struggle, would they become SELLERS...the logical 'bait' would be Adrian Beltre, Victor Martinez, and maybe Jonathan Papelbon.

Has Felix Doubront moved ahead of Casey Kelly in the prospect ranking? (Hate mail starts now). Kelly's last 8 starts: 43 IP, 53H, 28 ER, 14 BB, 34 K. ERA 5.86. Well, the K/BB ratio is good, but the WHIP isn't. He's probably working on stuff, because the process is as important as the outcome at this point.

This game just has a bad feel to it.

Five Swings: Trade Deadline

2010-07-31T21:08:00.001-04:00

Lots of factors go into business decisions, ranging from performance to potential to dollars.

1. Kalish and Hermida. Jeremy Hermida gets DFA'd, hardly surprising when the former first round draft choice did nothing to dispel the "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane" rap. After a torrid start, Hermida didn't hit and looked worse than that afield. Kalish can run and play defense, and it wouldn't take a lot of production to surpass the former Marlin. Kalish had two hits, a run scored and an RBI in his debut...pretty good story to tell his grandchildren someday.

2. How do you spell relief? The Sox will try to cobble together middle relief with Scott Atchison and some combination of Michael Bowden and Felix Doubront down the stretch. The low budget but low sacrifice approach as they don't mortgage the farm with prospects for suspects.

3. Catch as catch can. Jarrod Saltamacchia developed Steve Blass Disease (a.k.a. the yips) and has been working through it. The Sox certainly didn't overpay, and this gives them options going forward, with a likely backup at worst. If Beltre goes and V-Mart stays, the Sox can try to shuffle Youkilis to third, Martinez to first, and potentially have a Salty dog at catcher while they develop the legions of catching prospects they have.

4. Nomarramon. In 2004 it was Garciaparra going and now it's not Nomar, but Ramon Ramirez. As uncomfortable as it was to watch Ramirez, it must have been as uncomfortable for him. Go West young man, to the Giants. Was Jacoby Ellsbury really on the block?

5. What do you do? David Ortiz's comeback story continues, as he leads the Sox in homers and RBIs and argues for a spot on the 2011 version. Today's walkoff hit for Ortiz was his eighteenth but the Sox remain about 10 lengths behind coming into the back stretch.

It's still not football season.

I'm Glad You Didn't Take It Personally

2010-07-29T22:40:00.000-04:00

No, I'm not talking about Jim Bouton's sequel to the irreverent Ball Four. And I'm not disparaging the job Terry Francona has done with an injured lineup, a starting rotation only now coming together, and a bullpen solid at the back end and largely sordid at the front end.

The Boston Red Sox 2010, intriguing, playing hard, but crippled by injuries and an untimely West Coast trip that made fans (the ones not on vacation) tune in to bedtime not baseball.

This might be the best starting rotation the Sox have had in my lifetime, with a potential someday Hall of Famer in progress (Jon Lester), two very high end starters (Beckett and Lackey), a guy with absolutely filthy stuff (Buchholz), and the enigmatic but talented foreign important, Matsuzaka.

The excitement on the bases has been a no-show from injury and half the 'soul' of the team (Dustin Pedroia) kills himself to get back on the field, but can't hurry the process. It's a season where the fans have drunk the "devil's Kool-Aid" and wonder whether it's worth coming back for seconds.

Yes, the road trip had its moments, from a three game sweep of the Halos, to a potential 5-4 forceout turned into a 5-4-3 fielder's choice without an out, to a pair of Big Papi homers in a game to an erstwhile perfect game by Jon Lester torpedoed by AAA defense.

The Sox aren't totally boring...the pitching is decent, ninth in ERA, and the defense seventh in fielding percentage. The offense excitement, even without a catcher who could hit for what seemed like forever, and with assorted other absentees, still generates the second most runs in the AL and the highest OPS.

Let's face facts...Sox fans are used to stars, and four-letter words like Cash, Hall, and Nava aren't...although Bill Hall has filled in admirably all over the field. Too bad he couldn't play catcher. Darnell McDonald and Eric Patterson are fine as fill ins, but don't satisfy adrenaline junkies in Baseball's Athens.

Neither the joy of baseball, nor specifically "The Nation" has vanished; it's more like the excitement has behaved like dry ice, with excitement cooling via sublimation. Perhaps only the truest baseball aficionado can enjoy the 'sublime' play of overachieving reserves. If that's the case, then I'm simply not that enamored with a child's game played by too many men who don't seem to care enough and too often hide in the shadows when terms like performance enhancement come up. You'd think that the guys who don't cheat would be begging to be proven clean and bring the playing field level. I guess mostly, we'd think wrong.

Oki - Doh!

2010-07-25T21:34:00.001-04:00

Sigh.

Never Let the Facts Cloud Your Beliefs

2010-07-11T21:02:00.001-04:00

The unofficial arm of the Boston Red Sox, a.k.a. The American College of Radiology has scientific guidelines on the use of imaging in the diagnosis of rib fractures. Really.

CT scans are remarkably effective in detecting chest trauma. (Click the scan to enlarge and see the rib fractures)

But imaging studies won't necessarily tell us when a 'worker' can return to his 'usual duties'. A construction worker, laborer (doing heavy lifting), or professional athlete subjected to repeated trauma isn't going to respond the same way as a journalist or a doctor.

So what we don't know are 1) the facts (how completely Jacoby Ellsbury has recovered) or 2) the context, as in are there other factors souring the relationship between Ellsbury and management. Throw Scott Boras into the mix, and we get more heat and no light.

So we lack the facts and have too many 'beliefs' based on just about nothing. So what else is new?

Jon Lester: The Big Picture

2010-07-10T12:04:00.000-04:00

The Red Sox brass had to celebrate what they'd built, resigning Josh Beckett, acquiring John Lackey, and developing Clay Buchholz, with four out pitches (95 mph heat, 12-6 curve, devastating change, and recently branded cutter).

But the gem of the staff is the 26 year-old lefter from Tacoma. Battling professional hitters must seem easy after enduring cancer chemotherapy. This season Lester leads Sox hurlers with eleven wins, and leads the AL in starts, wins above replacement, and hits allowed per nine innings.

Over the past two and a half seasons, he is 42-17, with 501 strikeouts in 513.2 innings. And he's getting better before our eyes, controlling both sides of the plate, using the cutter against right-handers, and developing another out pitch with his change-up. His adjusted ERA+ (adjusted for ballpark) has been in the top five in the AL for each of the past three seasons. He keeps the ball in the park, fourth in the league in fewest homers allowed.

He has the stuff of a strikeout pitcher and the confidence to pitch to contact. He can keep the running game in check. He has conquered the early career struggles emanating from erratic command. He has won the clinching game of the World Series, thrown a no-hitter, and might start the All-Star game on Tuesday.

He is one of the elite pitchers in baseball and we've had the privilege of watching that evolution.

Stranger in a Strange Land

2010-07-09T21:11:00.000-04:00

Plenty surrounding baseball makes no sense.

When hitters batter a pitcher, it is 'expected' that the pitcher can 'retaliate' by brushing them back. At times, the "purpose pitch" causes life-threatening injury, as in Jack Hamilton's beaning of Tony Conigliaro. Batters don't charge the mound when the pitcher dominates...
Baseball managers wear uniforms. We don't see Doc Rivers, Bill Belichick, or gawd fawbid Bill Parcells suiting up in their team unis.
Pitchers aren't supposed to show up hitters with the fist pump, but the 'home run trot' has become a home run walk for some.
Jacoby Ellsbury gets a petulant 'walk off' in Arizona because of injury.

If Ellsbury can't play, the fans understand. You can't swing the lumber with high torque, or dive after flyballs, crash into walls, or break up the double play when you're INJURED. Nobody disputes that Ellsbury has injuries, well documented rib fractures. I remember that we literally had to order an athlete not to play (under penalty of violation of the Uniformed Code of Military Injury) because of injury. But Kevin Youkilis' questioning of Ellsbury's absence becomes the equivalent of Colonel Nathan Jessep ordering a 'code red' in A Few Good Men.

The Sox have plenty of gamers, Youkilis out there day after day, Dustin Pedroia playing with a sore knee, and Mike Cameron playing with an abdominal hernia. All Youkilis did was state the obvious, that Ellsbury's absence has a strange and foul odor to it. Is it therapy or petulance?

We all want Ellsbury to return as soon as possible, and we look forward to a healthy and productive outfielder. But it's not too much to ask him to remain part of the team during his recovery. The team fields a strange lineup day after day, and Ellsbury has become a stranger in the strange land.

Thoughts on the All-Star Game and More

2010-07-05T21:14:00.000-04:00

Baseball has the only All-Star game that really matters. Why? The Pro Bowl is anticlimactic, the NBA All-Star game is played sans defense, and hockey...well...

So if the All-Star game counts, then why aren't all the best players going? Kevin Youkilis is one of the top five offensive players in the AL, and he has to bite his nails wondering whether the fan-geeks will vote him on (yeah, I did my part over twenty times).

A-Rod gets named as an extra. Does he get a bonus to go? He should be an All-Star every year at his contract rate. If he didn't get named, would he care (if there's no money involved).

Clay Buchholz had a WAG (wives and girlfriends) top twenty nomination, so maybe he doesn't care if he can't play...

What's your favorite All-Star memory? I've got a bunch, Yaz making a miraculous catch to rob a homer, Bo Jackson homering and stealing a base, and the worst was Johnny Callison taking the Monster deep in 1964, which I think was a 'walkoff' homer before such terminology existed.

As for the state of the Sox, how much complaining can we do when they have the 'win today' mantra and a lot of fungible parts playing their roles well for the most part. Eric Patterson hits two homers in a meaningful game? He probably doesn't even dream about that. The Baird-Epstein targeted platoon (Patterson versus selected RHP, McDonald versus right, Nava versus other righthanders) has worked out. The catching solutions haven't been so great but it is what it is.

Deal or No Deal?

2010-07-04T12:10:00.001-04:00

Several years ago the Red Sox leapt into the Johan Santana sweepstakes, with Santana ultimately ending up on the New York Mets. If Santana had wound up on the Sox, the Twins would have received Jon Lester and others. What's been the track record in the interim?

First, I wrote that among the great pitchers in contemporary baseball history, few have averaged more than 16 wins during the six year career span contemplated...and second, Santana wound up making a king's ransom, which also decreases your ability to pay other players.

Of course, Lester also pitches in the pitcher-unfriendly AL and the especially unfriendly AL East.

During the past three years, the cancer survivor Lester has earned about 5.17 million dollars, and the Mets ace Santana has earned over ten times as much, nearly 56 million.

Sometimes the deals you don't make turn out the best. And the pitcher most similar (similarity scores) to Johan Santana through age 25? Jon Lester.

Glove Story

2010-07-03T22:02:00.000-04:00

The band of misfits currently wearing Red Sox uniforms continue to play good baseball, particularly with the assistance of some not-so-inspired play from the Orioles.

Still, within the game in a game, I have a few observations. In the first inning, Daniel Nava almost created an Oriole rally with a poor jump on a single, forcing Jon Lester to induce a DP grounder (not a thing of beauty with Kevin Youkilis doing a manatee imitation to make the play on his end).

In the bottom of the first, Eric Patterson beat out a DP grounder to key the rally. Ortiz (added to three hits) had a walk, and then Youkilis, Drew, and Nava all proceeded to generate doubles, and four runs. In other words, Patterson's speed and hustle kept the inning alive, and ultimately sank Jeremy Guthrie.

Lester continued his roll, picking up a win to move into double figures, and his K/BB ratio and WHIP ratio establish him as the Sox ace and most-deserving All-Star pitcher. At this point, Lester has achieved status (in my mind anyway) as the best Sox southpaw (eclipsing Bruce Hurst and Bill Lee) in two generations.

J.D. Drew has gotten onto a streak of his own, and he has the ability to carry a team for a month.

And as for the title, on David Ortiz's eighth inning double, Julio Lugo shared a laugh with Big Papi behind a glove covering Lugo's face...probably something about blazing speed. I can't speak for most fans, but I enjoy seeing grown men playing a kid's game actually have fun.

Five Swings: Living on a Prayer

2010-07-02T18:10:00.000-04:00

Like Bon Jovi's "Living on a Prayer", the Red Sox approach the halfway point, battered and the wild card position bolstered by overachievers and a plethora of unheralded reserves. In some ways, this club deserves both more admiration and respect than some others with more talent.

1. The Manager. Terry Francona has prospered without one of his top pitchers (Josh Beckett), without a semblance of a regular outfield, and despite a deplorable start. Francona's ability to keep turmoil 'in house' gets him high marks and the respect of a veteran ballclub.

2. Catcher in the Wry. Who would have thought the Red Sox to have an incredibly productive catching duo with Victor Martinez and Jason Varitek combining for 16 homers and 54 RBI? Of course, having both on the DL simultaneously is a more surprising development. Strength up the middle rules in all major sports, chess, and checkers. Will the combination of Molina and Cash do the job?

3. Fracture. In the movie 'Fracture', Anthony Hopkins proves a formidable challenge in a murder investigation. In the 2010 baseball season, fractures prove a formidable challenge among the leftfielding duo of Ellsbury and Hermida, the catching pair above, and Dustin Pedroia. Accelerating healing sounds easy enough, but in practice, not so much. None of the Sox' injured have 'pathologic fractures' as far as we know, and presumably none have osteoporosis. The Sox aren't hurt, they're injured and none can particularly play through the pain.

4. Bullpen succession plan. Jonathan Papelbon evolved from a three pitch starter to a one pitch reliever last season, and unfortunately, that wasn't the Rivera cutter or the Sparky Lyle slider. Papelbon remains one of the best closers in the AL, but his struggles raise the question of when Daniel Bard challenges him for the alpha male of the bullpen. Bard has both a better fastball and a better breaking ball than the incumbent, and works on an off-speed pitch to complete his repertoire. Everyone knows that the job of closer is as much 'the head game' as a physical challenge. When Papelbon's demands his expected production, then the ascendancy begins.

5. Ring that Beltre. David Ortiz and the 'Rent-a-Glove' Adrian Beltre have provided far more than expected as the Sox offense leads the majors in runs scored and OPS. Beltre has resuscitated his career playing with high effort day after day, and coupled with Kevin Youkilis gives the Sox a pair of legitimate all-star roster players. When (the last time I checked) we consider that Jason Bay had four homers, thirty-one RBI, and a .787 OPS, for 15 extra large per season, both Ortiz and Beltre seem like bargains. The Sox strength in the minors has been pitching, so acquiring and retaining bats remains a priority.

Five Swings: The One-Der of You

2010-06-19T22:20:00.000-04:00

Beat LA! The Dodgers checked into Ye Olde Ballpark to face the tail end of the rotation in newcomer Felix (the Cat) Doubron and Tim Wakefield and the Sox have closed to within one game of a tie for the top of the AL East.

1. Revenge of the Turds. Not really, but his Manholiness delivered a Wakefield butterfly into the departed left field nets. Fortunately, like Manny it was a Solo Shot.

2. Did You Know? Tim McCarver played MLB for about a thousand seasons, but in one unglorious ended one for the Sox (1967), McCarver finished second in the NL MVP race, socking 14 homers and 69 RBI for the Cards.

3. Slugging fools.

The American League OPS leaders. The "run prevention" crew from Beantown has four members, including a trio in the top 12. Yankee third sacker A-Rod, sans steroids checks in at number thirty. The Yankees and the Royals both have a pair in the top seventeen.

4. All-Stars? Distribution requirements aside (at least one from every team, and the mandatory Yankee infield rule), the deserving Sox include Youkilis, Buchholz, Lester, Papelbon, Beltre, and possibly Victor Martinez or David Ortiz on the bubble. I don't see more than two Sox pitchers making it and two position players making it.

5. Inter-net? The Sox 9-2 Interleague record has been the difference along with generally playing better baseball. Today the "run prevention" approach fell down a little with some erratic infield arms (is Scutaro still hurt?), but the combination of solid starting pitching and leading the majors in runs scored produces predictable results. The Sox' ERA was 11th in the AL in April, 7th in May, and has shrunken to 4th in June. Dramatically the Sox K/BB ratio rocketed from 1.82 in April and 1.73 in May to a much more palatable 2.26 in June.

Five Swings: Where Are We?

2010-06-18T20:38:00.000-04:00

How negative can one be when the Red Sox have the third highest winning percentage in baseball and have moved within a pair of games of the leading Rays and Yankees?

1. Rohring Start. Slim lefty Felix Doubront started out strong, but a series of Dodger hits and Sox misses led to three tying runs. Doubront didn't make anyone forget Jim Kaat covering first base, and Mike Cameron did a Lonnie Smith imitation to make matters worse. Okay, so it wasn't a no-hitter into the ninth, but how much of a career did Billy Rohr have? Doubront has shown a live fastball, a willingness to pitch to contact, and an intention to try to control both sides of the plate with the fastball. Curveball? Not so much, so far. He has a rep of holding runners on, but looks to have a slow delivery to the plate.

2. Nava Ho! Daniel Nava came in hitting .444 in a small sample size. He may be getting even more PT, with J.D. Drew limping off after catching a sinking liner. Drew's Naehringesque health status has to worry Sox fans, but it may again open up the Chronicles of Reddick.

3. Catch of the Day. Jason Varitek got the start tonight, very understandable with a rook on the bump. Varitek has been terrific as the backup, and at this point in his career, the money's still good, so it should be 'all good' for the Captain.

4. Boomtown. The Sox had a pair of homers in the first, including an Ortiz blast that threatened the Jordan's Furniture signage. The promotion hasn't started yet, anyway, but just sayin'. J.D. Drew had about a four minute home run trot, because the refs missed the OBVIOUS homer. When a round object hits a flat object flush, it bounces back, whether or not you've even heard of Newtonian physics. The blue crew got it right after a replay. Now if Bud Light could only recognize the 21st perfect game in history...

5. Manny. I'd love to reveal some juicy Manny tale, but in the best interest of baseball, I won't. See Bud, it's not that hard. Ramirez returned as DH, along with Dodger skipper Joe Torre, oft architect of numerous Yankee-Sox battles.

Summary: Doubront shows poise and competitiveness, but his curveball needs a lot of work, at least if this is his 'generic' stuff. I saw highlights with a better one, so maybe it's an outlier....

How Good Is Kevin Youkilis?

2010-06-16T21:50:00.002-04:00

Sometimes as a fan you have a player in your midst who you simply don't appreciate. Ergo, I ask the question "how good is Kevin Youkilis?"

Despite the Greek god of walks moniker, Youkilis isn't primarily a 'bases on balls' machine, although he does lead the AL in walks. Here are some statistics that might give you pause and some general comments:

I'll argue that Youkilis is the Sox best player and one of the top five in the AL. Why?
Youkilis has won a Gold Glove, although his fielding isn't his best attribute.
He has finished in the top 6 in AL MVP BOTH of the past two seasons.
He has been in the top 8 in the AL in "Wins Above Replacement" each of the past three years.
Among active players he is eleventh in on base percentage.
He has been in the top five in SLUGGING percentage in the AL each of the past three years.
He has been in the top four in On Base Slugging percentage (OPS) in each of the past three years.
He currently is third in the AL in OPS.
He leads the AL in runs scored.
In summary, as well as providing above average defense at first, he is among the top five RUN PRODUCERS in the AL. He gets on base, scores, has a high slugging percentage, and is recognized by TPTB as among the elite by virtue of AL MVP results and all-star selections.

He might be the most underrated player in baseball, as I'd guess that most fans wouldn't view him among the most elite hitters (if asked to name the top five in the AL) around, but he clearly is. In "Moneyball" Billy Beane asked, "if he's such a great hitter, then why doesn't he hit better?" Youkilis does deliver and deserves more credit for what he does game after game, while not giving away at bats. I rest my case.

40 Percent Solution

2010-06-14T18:05:00.000-04:00

The Red Sox have more or less passed the first two-fifths of the annual regular season curriculum, trailing both the Yankees and the Rays by four games (five in the loss column). Realistically, perhaps they deserve an "incomplete" more than a grade, because they've labored for most of the season without two starting outfielders and their erstwhile ace, Josh Beckett.

Writing about the Sox creates special problems today, as attending my daughters' college graduation this weekend kept me away from the action. Suffice it to say, it was another 'Meatloaf" weekend, as in 'Two Out of Three Ain't Bad."

The Sox have moved the "plus-minus" rating in the right direction, and the "Run Prevention" strategy seems to be working out better lately as well. They have lowered their team ERA to 4.36 (ninth in the AL) and despite early defensive woes on the left side of the infield, they are now fourth in the AL in both fielding percentage and fewest errors.

Meanwhile, the "traditional" Sox are second in the AL in runs scored and lead the AL in OPS (.817). Among the regulars, Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Beltre, David Ortiz, and Victor Martinez all have an OPS over .850, and J.D. Drew is not far behind at .819.

The season, which appeared to be on the brink, no longer is, despite the cast of fill-ins and sometimes misfits who fill the diamond settings.

Needs? Yes, the Sox need a healthy and effective Josh Beckett, Dustin Pedroia in full health, and the continuing strength at the back end of the game with Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon. It seems as though they always need another bat, and overall they have to be disappointed with the production from the outfield, notwithstanding the destructive debuts of Darnell McDonald and Daniel Nava. Some have mentioned Rick Ankiel while perhaps their best hope comes just from getting healthy.

With the Celtics stealing the headlines, the Sox haven't done half bad...

Stonewall or Rock Head

2010-06-10T12:17:00.000-04:00

Here's the extremely passionate response from MLB to an email I sent them concerning the Galarraga perfect game.

First paragraph, the commissioners statement (already read).
Second paragraph, "We will not issue further comments as of this moment."

It's a business, a multi-billion dollar business, and I am just one 'customer' with pretty much no impact on the business. If I had some wonderfully scandalous and ethically defective information about a player or a team, I wouldn't release it...naturally, "in the best interests of the game." Heck, baseball looked the other way about its problems virtually until Congressional inquiry (and concern over loss of exemption of anti-trust status?) supervened.

Just ignore the problem and it will go away...until it comes up in the final inning of the World Series?

As Easy as A or B

2010-06-07T22:07:00.001-04:00

Pitcher A:

Pitcher B:

Probably the two most important categories are K/BB and WHIP ratio. Looks like Pitcher A has been more effective than Pitcher B. Just sayin'.

Pitcher A: Daisuke Matsuzaka (now with 5 wins)
Pitcher B: John Lackey

Defending the Status Quo?

2010-06-07T20:17:00.000-04:00

The question of the use of replay won't seem to go away. The first question that has to be asked is "do you care about getting it right?" If you don't care, and you're a human error is an important, essential part of the game, then the discussion could end. Don and Jerry have had a logically inconsistent discussion about how you can't change, how it's difficult to call sometimes, and then talk about adding a fifth umpire (they could use a central location to reduce costs) and agree that college football seems to make the decisions quickly. It's the 'one-handed economist' argument, that there is no 'on the other hand'.

Meanwhile, back in Cleveland, the Sox have created some opportunities, big Papi beats out a double play grounder (no replay needed), and Josh Reddick seems to have come alive. Reddick has athleticism and a live bat, but will he hit enough?

Didn't J.D. Drew have his ALCS slam against Fausto Carmona? I think so.

Daisuke looks like Fausto Carmona and the latter is doing his Daisuke wildness imitation. Alternate reality, you gotta love it.

The Boston Globe reports that Jacoby Ellsbury is off to California for yet another opinion on broken ribs. He must not be arbitration-eligible? If he can't slide hard into bases or dive in the outfield, then he can't play. That's my opinion, no matter what his diagnosis. The Boof Bonser era begins and Jonathan Papelbon is on bereavement leave. That extends the Joe Nelson experiment or Mike Lowell's Red Sox career for a few days.

The MLB draft is up to choice 12 (the Sox pick 20th) and no surprise, power-hitting phenom Bryce Harper went to the Nats, who could get exciting pretty soon.

Yesterday's game left Sox fans with a sour taste as the Sox flopped to 1-7 in extra frames.

Asterisk Man, Commissioner "He Who Must Never Be Named"

2010-06-06T17:47:00.000-04:00

It's a new week, and the world hasn't come apart because baseball commissioner* "He Who Must Never Be Named" refuses to acknowledge what the whole world knows, that Armando Galarraga pitched the 21st perfect game in Major League Baseball history. Or should we call it Major Denial League Baseball.

The commissioner's stubbornness casts a blight upon the game, in the same manner that performance-enhancing drugs (wink wink, nod nod) did. Failure to act can be a sign of strength, of commitment, or of principle. But equally, indifference to a wrong has the appearance of weakness and cowardice.

Adherence to tradition isn't anything new, and it took years for replay to penetrate other major sports. But technological advances, and widespread gambling on sports, forced recalcitrant ownership to reevaluate. And don't expect any to retreat from their adoption of 'getting it right'.

Hardcore baseball fans can simply recognize Galarraga's perfect game, in effect, ignoring the political indifference that brings only shame upon the commissioner. Wikipedia can recognize the perfect game, as could "reference" sites like baseball reference.

The asterisk belongs the commissioner of baseball, who had the opportunity to right a blown decision, and blew it.

That Didn't Leave as Much of a Mark as It Could Have

2010-06-05T20:06:00.000-04:00

Not many Sox fans would argue that the season so far has been anything approaching success. Yet throw away the angst and include the 6-9 mediocrity against the Yankees and the Rays and the Sox remain in striking distance.

Here's the AL team versus team grid.

The good has come from the outstanding (overall) pitching of Lester and Buchholz at the top of the rotation and the setup-closer combination of Bard and Papelbon. Adrian Beltre has overachieved, David Ortiz has outperformed expectations, and Kevin Youkilis remains one of the top players in the league. Jason Varitek has performed a backup role very effectively. Of the newcomers, Bill Hall has shown versatility and some pop.

Mediocrity has come from the entirety of the outfield, and Victor Martinez has turned his season around recently. John Lackey hasn't found a groove as his command hasn't been there, although most Sox fans probably expect him to rebound. Dustin Pedroia had a tremendous April and has struggled at the plate recently, but continues to excel defensively.

The ugly has reared its head with the injury bug, with the Ellsbury and Cameron duo combining for 13 runs, 5 RBI, no homers, and two stolen bases in a combined 25 games. Josh Beckett's injuries have rendered him either ineffective or absent and he won't be back for a month or more, considering his shutdown.

It's hard to even grade Theo Epstein with so many injuries. The organizational decision NOT to part with either Lester or Buchholz can't go unnoticed, and the disgruntled bus has too many players ensconced, with Lowell (.229/.316/.343/.659) and Wakefield (1-4,, 6.02) drawing a Shakespearean "methinks thou dost protest too much".

Is Terry Francona doing his best managerial job ever, with unhappy veterans, injuries, and too many at bats for guys named McDonald, Hermida, and Reddick?

So even though fans Stones-style can't get no satisfaction, we try and we try and we try.

50 Ways to Lose a Ballgame

2010-06-04T20:37:00.000-04:00

Paul Simon had a classic hit 50 ways to leave your lover. The Red Sox have sought to establish 50 ways to lose a ballgame. I won't try to name fifty...this time.

Fear Factor. The Bogar man. "Send him in Tim" Bogar might be the greatest guy in the world, but he's cost the Sox a couple of games already.
Collateral Damage. The collision between Adrian Beltre and Jacoby Ellsbury cost the Sox their leadoff hitter for the first half of the season. It happens.
Year of Living Dangerously. Will Victor Martinez overcome a slow start?
Pap-per Chase. A pair of Yankee homers in the ninth did Papelbon dirty.
Wild thing. Daisuke Matsuzaka, a.k.a. 'The Nibbler' drives fans to drink.
"Jeremy." Like Michael Jackson, one wonders what the glove is for.
"Speed." The Sox mostly don't have it, with Ellsbury sidelined, with good baserunners including Pedroia, Drew, Youkilis, and Beltre.
The Running Man. Although it's gone better lately, opposing runners have run wild this season on the Sox.
Outland. Early season struggles at the plate for Drew, Ortiz, and V-Mart.
Eraser. What Jon Lester would do about his first three outings.

Seriously, the early season "Misery" didn't result because of one guy, rather collective struggles in all aspects of the game. The Sox have time to recover, have played far better, led by the work of Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, and the work (especially) of Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon at the back end. "It's About Time."