Sunday, July 23, 2006

Mama Said There'd Be Days Like This

"A rose by any other name would smell as sweet." And a flaming bag of dog poop would be as nasty...

Statistics gives us terms to describe performance outside of expected parameters. Using a Gaussian or 'normal' distribution, we would find two standard deviations encompass 95 percent of expected upside and downside performance. That would still leave about 8 games a season (four at either extreme) where 'it' happened. On the upside, that could be an Ortiz game-winner or a Loretta 'Monster Seat' shot, and on the downside, there was today.

Home cooking disagreed with Jon Lester to the extent of a five inning five run performance. Coco Crisp and Manny Ramirez misplayed the Beltre drive into an inside-the-park home run, Manny Delcarmen had his worst performance in weeks, and Mike Timlin surrendered the game-winning homerun to Richie Sexson. To be fair, we have to recognize that Seattle is not a bandbox, and the Beltre and Sexson shots were, just that, shots. They get overpaid to do exactly that.

Whether you're a baseball fan, a market analyst, a meteorologist, trash collector, or counterworker at a McJob, there will be days like today. Count on it. You can stamp your feet and hold your breath, but you'll end up with sore feet, turn blue, and then restart breathing. Players aren't perfect, and baseball games are aptly played on a diamond, as diamonds are usually imperfect gems formed through time and the crucible of pressure.

1 comment:

Llama Killa said...

amen, ron. it's like the man said, "some days you get the bear, some days the bear gets you."