White Hot, the Hot Stove League Leaves Sox Fans Blue

The New York Yankees got their 27th championship, a magical combination of glory and greenbacks, and the Red Sox have Jeremy Hermida. So, we're all feeling a lot better.

The Sox seem destined for the poorhouse it seems, with Josh Beckett only a year away from free agency, Jason Bay suddenly the defensive talent of say, Mike Greenwell, and John Henry doing a chopshop job on his investment company. Maybe they can reclaim the Dunkin Dugout seats.

We'll find out soon whether it was really Brad Mills who broke the curse, or whether the Sox can fill the role of bench coach with some combination of Stephen Hawking and Dr. Tom Hanson. Theo, you really ought to think about it.

What we've learned in the offseason is how great J.D. Drew really is (I thought his season more than passable, although the Win Shares/dollar might be less so). If Win Shares mean something, then we should acknowledge that Drew was an estimated SIXTH in the AL at his position. We found out that Rocco Baldelli will seek employment elsewhere, and of course that four Red Sox have also won World Series with both the Red Sox and the Yankees, Babe Ruth, Johnny Damon, Eric Hinske, and Ramiro Mendoza. Holy carp!

2009 taught us that money can't buy happiness, but it can buy a title. That's alright with me, because the Sox are New York light, with the big market payroll albeit small market swagger.

The issues for the Sox headed in 2010:

• Left-field. Bye-bye, Bay-be, good-bye?
• Can we get more mileage from the Japanese import, Daisuke Matsuzaka?
• Will the financial black hole/revolving door at shortstop ever close?
• Is Theo Epstein's expectation of Jacoby Ellsbury hitting for power a steroid era fantasy?
• If there's money to be paid out, who's going to claim it, Jonathan "more mouths to feed" Papelbon, Beckett, Bay, V-Mart, all or none of the above?
• Is Daniel Bard the closer-in-waiting? Does Jonathan Papelbon intend to throw more than fastballs?
• Is My Captain, My Captain going the way of "Nevermore"?
• Does Mike Lowell have gas in the tank, or specifically the femur/acetabulum?
  
• Will the real David Ortiz, please step up to the plate?

Mike Lowell's hip means a lot to the Red Sox.

How much would it take to get Justin Morneau from the Twins, because they're generally payroll parsimonious, and going to have to pay Joe Mauer? Heck, maybe they'll pay him less, because after all he didn't win the Hank Aaron Award, given to the best hitter from New York, excluding Mark Teixeira?

Captions?

2009 Post-Mortem

What post-mortem examination do the 2009 Red Sox deserve? The simplest and most deserving explanation follows that the Red Sox simply went as far as they deserved.

A team created to be balanced failed to show balance...underachieving on the road, including a dismal road show in Anaheim.

Overall the team went 95-67, but let's look inside the numbers.

• They won 16 of 18 games against the Orioles, the worst team in MLB
• They won 7 of 9 games from the next worse Indians
  
• Therefore of their 28 games over .500, 19 came from just two teams
• 7 teams other than Boston had winning records, New York, Tampa, Minnesota, Detroit, Los Angeles, Texas, and Seattle
• The Sox split with the Yankees and Rays, and had a winning record against only two teams with winning records (Detroit and Minnesota).
  
• In other words, the Sox couldn't beat good teams consistently
• All of which brings us to why they're working on their handicap instead of freezing to death playing baseball.
  

Why can't the team perform on the road? If there were a simple answer, you'd expect ownership and management to know it. The Sox had an OPS of .753 on the road, and only one AL team, the Yankees had an OPS over .800 on the road. Six AL teams had OPS exceeding .800 at home, including the Red Sox, leading at .862. For all the sturm and drang about Yankee Stadium, the Yankee OPS only increased .036 at home, compared to the Sox' .109.

The tale of the tape for pitching is a bit surprising, with a .736 OPS against at home and .779 away. In other words, the Sox not only hit better at Friendly Fenway, but also pitched better.

Upset? Not really, as perhaps Red Sox Nation's "need to win" has lessened in the wake of a pair of World Series crowns. In other words, the sense of urgency isn't so great. "We haven't won a title in two years."

Maybe worse than the early playoff exit is the reality that the Sox, for the most part, don't generate much excitement. It wasn't as though everyone had a career 'down' year. V-Mart, Youkilis, Gonzalez, Bay, Ellsbury, and Drew all performed at least to most people's expectations. Pedroia and Lowell were at least adequate, and David Ortiz had half a season after struggling mightily.

But overall, the lineup inexplicably struggles to 'create' and 'prevent' runs on the road. With a largely 'mature' team, the Sox can't lack the knowledge on how to get it done on the road. Yes, we've heard of Sox past burning the candles from both ends, but again, that dog don't hunt. At least let's hope not.

Psych

How much psychic energy should we expend worrying about the Sox these days? Not so much.

Just as in the NFL, you have to make the playoffs, then we'll start to worry. The Sox have four starters pitching well into the playoffs, and the deepest bullpen. What SHOULD we care about?

• Jason Varitek. The Captain's offense has disappeared in the second half and everyone on the opposition looks like Jacoby Ellsbury.
• Manny Delcarmen. This looked like it would be Delcarmen's breakout season, until recently when he's struggled mightily. Still with the combination of Papelbon, Wagner, Bard, Okajima, Ramirez, and Saito ahead of him, Terry Francona has plenty of options.
• Road worriers. The Sox haven't shown much on the road recently, even splitting a pair in Kansas City.
• Fortune 500. The old deal about guys making a fortune and playing .500 ball...or less against good teams. That's what the playoffs are about, showing that you can beat the good teams.
  
• Coaching defections? Should we worry about other organizations poaching Sox staff in the offseason? That's going to be a hard one to get Sox fans riled up about. It's not like Dale Sveum is coming back to coach third base.
  

Why don't we focus on 'what worked'?

• The versatility of Kevin Youkilis moving seamlessly from first to third...forget about left field.
  
• David Ortiz had a resurgence the second half, hitting .254 with 15 homers. Only J. Bay had more for the Sox with 16, while Pedroia, Drew, and Youkilis all had 9.
• Jacoby Ellsbury has become a legitimate leadoff hitter, and the big inside 'hole' in his swing shrank.
• J. Bay had a solid second half after a brief struggle.
• V. Mart bolstered the offense with a 25 game hitting streak and clutch hitting.
• Alex Gonzalez plugged the leak at shortstop and had unexpected offense, even though he nearly never walks.
  
• Jon Lester became the best Sox lefty since...who knows when. Yeah, I know Bill Lee won 17 games three times; would you rather hit the Lester cutter or the Leephus?
• Bay, Martinez, Youkilis, and Drew all had second half OPS over .900.
• Balance. The Sox are third in runs, fourth in ERA, and fourth in fielding percentage.
• As much as the Sox have struggled on the road, they've excelled at home.
  
• Jerry Remy made a booth comeback.

No reason to nibble on the finger nails. The twin championships of 2004 and 2007 have simply exorcised the demons of yore.

Tuesday Well

• I'm rooting for Dice-K...he's a proud guy and a fierce competitor. A healthy productive Dice gives the Sox a better chance to win the big one.
• Yankee fans I'm talking to are not showing the bluster and confidence befitting their tradition. In fact, seeds of doubt creep into the Bomber Brains. Has the curse mentality become part of their collective psyche? We can only hope.
• 
• The MLB stolen base title race comes down to three.
  
• Terry Francona's Sox managerial winning percentage? .582. They showed that Sciosia's Angels' record was .555.
  
• The former Sox pitcher who is 41st all-time in pitching wins? Jamie Moyer, of course.
  
• If Bill Belichick were a baseball manager, who would he be? Really.
• To what would you attribute the Sox success? Fielding percentage, 5th in AL. ERA, 4th in the AL. Runs scored, 3rd. Balance.
  
• I saw an autographed poster recently with Varitek and his two recent no-hit pitchers, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz. The others? Derek Lowe and Hideo Nomo, methinks.
  
• If an actor were to play "Terry Francona, the Manager", who would it be? Bruce Willis, Dana Carvey?
• Good soldier? That would be Mike Lowell.
• Seen anything more painful than watching Tim Wakefield run? Hint. I have a treadmill.
  
• Is Sox opponent Vlad Guerrero a Hall of Famer? Over 400 homers, .957 OPS. He'd get my vote.
• Where did the 'bullpen' get it's name? I'd say that Congress should be the "bull pen". But that's just me.

John!

• 
  
• John Henry, not Jon Lester! Frankly, I wish the owner would share his thought on the US dollar, lumber, natural gas, and other commodities instead of the Red Sox.
• Brad Penny and John Smoltz sure look better in AAA...oh, the National League.
  
• Buchholz, as of now, still has the best 'swing and miss' stuff on the team.
  
• Yes, I noticed that Alex Gonzalez has yet to walk for the Sox. "You can't walk off the island." Heck, my wife knew that.
• Intrigue in the front office. Did the Sox Fenway makeover maven get sandbagged? Can't hardly believe I care about that.
• Will Pedroia climb to .300 by the end of the season?
• Can Jacoby Ellsbury be the first Red Sox stolen base champ in a long, long time?
• Heidi or Tina? Maryann or Ginger?
• If V-Mart is the personal catcher for Lester and Buchholz, doesn't that change the 'conventional wisdom' about the contribution of Jason Varitek?
• Jacoby Ellsbury has his OBP up to .350 and still isn't in the top 20 in runs scored. That doesn't sound right.
• Jon Lester and CC Sabathia are statistically pretty much interchangeable. I imagine the run support has been a little higher for the hefty lefty (7.50 vs 6.77)
• How valuable is Kevin Youkilis? A .997 OPS and enough versatility to play first or third make him a top 3 MVP candidate (Mauer, Jeter, Youkilis, Teixeira, M. Cabrera, Morales)
• Orange Red Sox hats for sale. Am I color blind?
• I like bonus clauses. I don't like it when teams hold out guys with bonus clauses.
• Get well Carlos Pena...a good season (Taters) despite a tough average...
• Summer sure disappeared abruptly. Is there any Indian Summer left?
• Buchholz gets the 'change speeds' mantra.
• Imagine if Daniel Bard had a change-up.
  
• Of course, sometimes guys with great stuff don't want to throw it...like Billy Koch.
• Terry Francona celebrated MJ's admission to the Hall of Fame.
  
• Torn hip labrum. Don't even remember that 'being' an injury back in the day.
• An autographed Roger Clemens photo was an auction item last night at a fundraiser I attended. Didn't even see anyone bid on it. Worse yet, somebody wrote in "Juicer" on the silent auction bid sheet.
  
• Welcome to the future.
  

Late Season Ramblings: Devil in the Details.

• The Red Sox brought the kryptonite to Tampa taking two of three. Since the Devil Rays became the Rays, hasn't the doormat factor disappeared.
• Jonathan Papelbon started having some 'clean' innings. Good for him, with MLB hurting him in the pocketbook for 'slow play'.
  
• Tonight's game has the two starters (Byrd/Garcia) with the worst fastballs among non-knuckleballers? It reminds me of pitching in an adult baseball league. If I were a hitter, I'd want to hit against me.
  
• J.D. Drew has had a pretty good season, or maybe a pretty good month saved his season.
• Drews August numbers? .329/.449/.644/1.093. Not too shabby.
  
• Why do pitchers throw Jason Bay fastballs?
• Second in OPS in the AL...Mr. Kevin Youkilis.
• Yankee fans seem to have flawed memories. Some view Paul O'Neill as Mr. Congeniality...while some of us remember him as the "Watercooler Terminator"
• Dave Roberts with the "ambush" strategy. A classic.
• Victor Martinez seems like an even better player than we thought.
• Rocco Baldelli has done a terrific job off the pine.
• BP fastballs can leave the yard.
  
• If I were a pitcher, I'd want to pitch in the NL.
• Even Pedro overpowers the weak Giants lineup...aside from Sandoval, they have very little offense.
  
• Last time I checked, the Sox had five guys in the top 20 in OBP...Youkilis, Bay, Martinez, Drew, and Pedroia.
• Let's hope Josh Beckett found the cure for homeritis.
  
• The top three in the bullpen are obvious...Paps, Wagner, and Bard. The lower half, among Delcarmen, Okajima, Saito, and Ramirez seem shakier lately.
  
• Whatever happened to Alex Rios?
• A lot of fans came disguised as empty seats in Tampa.
  
• David Price sure didn't look like the next coming of Sandy Koufax last night.
  
• Among all 97 major league catchers, Jason Varitek is last in stolen bases allowed (92%). Pierzynski is next at 80%. He also could hit below his weight for his second straight year. He must be hurt. Really.
• The White Sox (White Flag Sox ) traded Thome and Contreras...and still are putting up a good fight.
• Will payroll limitations send Tampa crashing back to the cellar sooner or later?
• Which three Sox pitchers make hitters have the worst looking swings? Wagner, Buchholz, and Bard. Oh, to have gas...and a changeup.